3 NFL Best Bets for Sunday, September 17

We began this season exactly how we needed to, without a loss. Last week’s three plays on unders resulted in a 2-0-1 record. That marks our first push in the nearly 80 documented NFL best bets and is a promising start to this season on the heels of a profitable 2022 (56.6%).

The San Francisco 49ers put the Steelers in uncomfortable positions all afternoon and took a 20-7 lead into halftime, giving our bet 14 points to work with in the second half. The only points scored in the third and fourth quarters were from a long touchdown run by Christian McCaffrey and a Jake Moody field goal as the 49ers’ defense held up to give us a 1-0 start.

Tennessee and New Orleans had a first-half pillow fight consisting of five field goals and a 9-6 Titans lead after 30 minutes. The pair never threatened the 41.5-point total while only one touchdown was scored amid eight field goals, including all 15 Tennessee points.

The final game on our card also jumped out to a fast start when we had an under ticket. The Eagles soared to a 16-0 lead after the first quarter before the Patriots responded with 14 points of their own to shrink the lead to two at the half. After enduring 12 points in the fourth, we breathed a sigh of relief thanks to three straight drives ending in turnovers on downs that salvaged the push.

Week 2 features low-spread matchups between division rivals like Ravens-Bengals and Dolphins-Patriots, while a Chiefs trip to Jacksonville places the spotlight on an early playoff preview between two of the AFC’s best teams. Our best bets for this Sunday are locked in; read ahead for the handicaps.

Packers @ Falcons: UNDER 40.5

The Packers looked dominant in the second half of their opening victory against the Bears in Chicago. At the same time, the Falcons pulled away in the fourth quarter against the new-look Carolina Panthers to start the season 1-0.

There are a few reasons this pair of teams that combined for 62 points in their Week 1 wins will combine for fewer than 41 this Sunday.

First, both appeared to have difficulty moving the ball on offense in some form. The Packers had little success running the ball against the Bears, managing 92 yards on 32 attempts.

The Falcons gained just 4.1 yards per pass attempt while Desmond Ridder wasn’t asked to do much, although they did accrue 130 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Second, both teams won the turnover battle without giving the ball away, and that stat is too volatile to continue week-to-week while units are still finding their rhythm.

Green Bay also added a pick-six to their point total and played from a short field to start the game after a bold Chicago fourth-down decision on the opening drive.

Both units relied on fourth-quarter scoring to extend multi-touchdown leads in Week 1. We’re not confident they’ll have repeat scoring performances this Sunday.

Bears +3 over Buccaneers & UNDER 41.5

This is the first time two of our best bets have come from the same game. The Bears hit the road after a disappointing loss to Green Bay at home in Week 1, while the Bucs return to Raymond James Stadium following an upset win against the Vikings to start their season.

There’s more than meets the eye to both. Tampa Bay was vastly out-gained by Minnesota in Week 1 and managed just 3.6 yards per play offensively. They forced three Viking turnovers and committed just three penalties in what was precisely the game they needed to play to win.

Chicago was inconsistent and mediocre in cobbling together 311 total yards on 12 drives. They were 3-of-13 on third downs and didn’t score a touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter.

Defensively, the Bears and Bucs held their opponents to less than three yards per carry and committed fewer penalties. We expect a return to the mean for both teams in Week 2, resulting in a close Bears win during a low-scoring affair in Tampa.