3 Best Bets and Top Predictions for College Football Week 5

The college football season is really ramping up as we head into week 5 action. Kicking things off in Eastern Carolina tonight as Army heads into Greenville, North Carolina, and is headlined by some major matchups Saturday.

Kicking things off Saturday, 21 USC heads across country to #23 Illinois, and after that beat down Illinois took, this game will surely be one to keep an eye on. #22 Notre Dame heads to reeling Arkansas coming off a loss at Memphis, #6 Oregon heading to #3 Penn State, and we get another year of #17 Alabama vs #3 Georgia, of which Alabama has dominated, winning nine of the last ten in that matchup.

Among the marquee games, our main article pick will be in Friday night’s clash between TCU and Arizona State. Let’s dig into that matchup!

TCU’s Passing Game Faces a Key Test

The Horned Frogs enter Friday night unbeaten with their offense clicking, scoring 35+ points in all three games to start their 2025 campaign. Josh Hoover, in my opinion, is a top 10 quarterback in the country, and was coming into this season. Hoover and star wideout Eric McAlister are becoming a matchup to watch every weekend, and they displayed that in their most recent win over SMU.

However, they are not at full strength heading into this matchup at a key position. Injuries in the backfield have limited their running game, as they are missing their lead back, senior Kevorian Barnes.

This could make their attack one-dimensional against a team capable of bringing pressure and against a team I believe has the better defense and better pass defense. If Arizona State is able to slow down the passing attack, it may be able to stall drives and cause a turnover or two.

Arizona State’s Dual-Threat Advantage

Arizona State is coming off a huge win at Baylor, after dropping its first road game at Mississippi State in week 2. The Sun Devils have leaned on quarterback Sam Leavitt, whose dual-threat ability keeps defenses guessing. He has 748 passing yards, 279 rushing yards, and a combined 10 touchdowns. He has shown the poise to extend plays with his legs and deliver accurate throws when the pocket collapses.

Leavitt’s versatility is a major advantage against a defense like TCU’s, which has been aggressive but also vulnerable at times to quarterbacks who can escape pressure. The Sun Devils’ defense has also held its own, especially against the run, which pairs well against a TCU offense missing a key weapon in the ground game.

Arizona State has the 31st best passing defense according to CFBdepth.com, the best pass defense Hoover has seen yet. Playing at home under the lights in Tempe, Arizona State should also benefit from an energized crowd, looking to go 4-1 on the season.

Best Bet: Arizona State ML (-130, Novig)

The Sun Devils have the more complete formula in this matchup, combining Leavitt’s quarterback versatility, Jordyn Tyson, who looks unstoppable on the outside, and a tough defensive unit with home-field advantage.

TCU is dangerous, but their schedule has been easy to this point in terms of facing defenses. A close game is likely, but Arizona State has the edge to pull out a win outright, 27–24 or 31–27.

Texas A&M -3.5 (-145, MGM) vs Auburn

Another intriguing SEC matchup sees Texas A&M favored by 6 to 7, depending on which book you use. The Aggies have shown steady improvement on both sides of the ball under Mike Elko, and they are looking to take more strides in season 2. Their impressive road win at Notre Dame was followed by a bye week heading into this matchup. I believe that gives Texas A&M a week to reset and not be all fat and sassy after the win over the Irish.

Auburn has been scrappy, but its offense has struggled in sustained drives against quality opponents. They scored 17 points against a better Oklahoma defense, but this A&M defense can wreak havoc, and I expect them to make life hard for Arnold. I like A&M in the trenches here in one of the best home-field advantage spots in big games. I do think -6 or -7 is okay, but I think this could be closer than some think.

Mississippi State +10.5 (-140, FanDuel) vs Tennessee

Tennessee enters this matchup as a heavy favorite (-300+), but Mississippi State has shown fight and the ability to hang around against more talented teams. The Bulldogs’ defense has been better than expected this season. This is Tennessee and Aguilar’s first game on the road. I expect Mississippi State to cause Aguilar to hold the ball longer and make some poor decisions.

If Mississippi State’s offense can avoid turnovers and put together a few efficient drives, they are capable of keeping this game within single digits. CFBdepth.com has Mississippi State rated with the #26 offense, just a notch behind Georgia, which dropped 44 on this Vols defense. I don’t mind the +7 or +8, but catching more than ten points gives plenty of value for me at -140.