2023 NFL Best Bets – Week 17

The chaos that’s ensued this season in the NFL has not shown any signs of slowing down with the final two weeks now on the horizon. Seven teams have clinched playoff berths to this point, with Cleveland being the latest on Thursday night following a win over the Jets. The Lions clinched their first division title since 1993 and can still nab the top seed in the NFC with a couple of wins and some help.

The Jaguars had their division virtually sealed up a month ago, but after four straight losses, they find themselves tied with Indy and Houston for the AFC South lead. No team in the division has a positive point differential.

Baltimore now sits atop the NFL with 12 wins, though San Francisco is still the favorite at the betting window. Baltimore faces Miami, the AFC East leaders, at home in Week 17.

Another fun scenario exists in the NFC South, where the Bucs have wrestled a one-game lead from Atlanta and New Orleans and control their fate after four straight wins. Baker Mayfield is tied for sixth in the NFL in touchdowns during a resurgent season for the former #1 pick.

Our Week 16 plays brought us the bounce back we sought, finishing 2-0 and raising our season-long record back above 50% to 18-16-2. The Steelers won outright handily over the Bengals on Saturday night as slim underdogs to get us started on the right foot, and the Falcons followed them with a 19-point victory at home as small favorites to seal the profitable weekend.

Week 17’s slate includes 14 games on Sunday, and we’ve written up our best bets ahead of the regular season’s penultimate week.

Dolphins +3.5 over Ravens

• Miami and Baltimore are coming off their best wins of the season in Week 16, with the Dolphins beating a team with a winning record for the first time this season.
• The Dolphins have yet to turn the ball over since their disappointing Monday night loss to Tennessee in Week 14.
• Baltimore had the benefit of five turnovers against San Francisco, picking off Brock Purdy four times on multiple tipped passes.
• No team has rushed for more than 4.0 yards per carry against the Dolphins in their last three games.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts: UNDER 42.5

• The Raiders defense has continued to improve as the season has drawn on.
• Las Vegas allowed 23.4 points per game in the season’s first eight games. They’ve given up 15.2 points per game in their seven matchups since.
• Since scoring 20+ points in every game for the first nine weeks of the season, the Colts offense has been inconsistent and is regressing.
• Over their last six contests, Indy has scored 14 points or fewer three times. That stretch includes losses to Cincinnati and Atlanta over their last three, where they failed to reach 5.0 yards per play offensively.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 42

• Tampa can clinch the division with a win at home over the Saints on Sunday.
• The Saints need to win to stay alive in the division race and have improved offensively over the last month. New Orleans is averaging 25.5 points per game over their previous four games.
• Tampa Bay is one of the hotter teams in the league offensively in that same stretch, putting up 28.5 points per game and reaching 29 or more points three straight times entering this week.