2023 NFL Best Bets – Week 11

It’s a hectic week for Las Vegas with Formula 1 in town on the heels of a wild weekend in the NFL for the bookmakers. Five teams won their Week 10 matchups with field goals that sailed through the uprights as time expired, a new league record for the most game-winning scores as the clock hit zeroes in regulation during the same week.

That will be difficult to top, but this Sunday’s slate is full of division games and intriguing matchups, with spreads ranging from Cleveland -1 hosting Baltimore to the Dolphins favored by 13.5 against the Raiders in Miami.

The dreaded reverse sweep struck for the second time this year in Week 10, reducing our season-long record to 10-10-2. The Ravens immediately picked off the Browns and brought it back for a score before the first minute had ticked off the game clock and then scored on their second possession to significantly drop the odds of our under cashing.

As it turned out, both games where we played unders had final scores in the 60s and never had a chance. The Titans struggled against the Bucs and dropped our third play on the board with a 14-point loss in Tampa, and we’re eager to move on to Week 11 after that recap.

Our best bets for this Sunday are lined up and ready to roll.

6-point Teaser: Steelers (+7) & OVER 26

Let’s get spicy in the AFC North. This isn’t a full-blown break from our system but an instance where we’re taking advantage of a teaser to maximize value where the numbers have shifted significantly. In the wake of the news about Cleveland’s quarterback situation, the Browns fell to one-point favorites after opening at 4.5. The total has also dropped, now at 32 with three days until kickoff.

The Browns averaged 20 points per game in the four contests that Dorian Thompson Robinson and PJ Walker played all or most of in October, and we acknowledge that DTR struggled in his debut against Baltimore on October 1. Pittsburgh is 27th in yards per play allowed and ranks in the bottom ten at defending the pass and the run in 2023.

The Steelers and Browns got to 48 points combined in Week 2, and even when removing two defensive touchdowns, they still would have gone over the number set in this game. We like Pittsburgh to stay within seven and the game to go over a mid-20s total.

Buccaneers @ 49ers: UNDER 41.5

Both teams have top-ten scoring and rushing defenses and rank in the top six in the league at minimizing turnovers. The Bucs’ vulnerability is their passing defense, which was shredded for an average of 335 yards per game in the four weeks before their win against Tennessee last Sunday.

Tampa Bay has also struggled to run the ball this season, ranking 32nd in yards per carry and accumulating just three rushing scores. San Francisco recently endured a three-game losing streak to Cleveland, Minnesota, and Cincinnati, turning the ball over seven times in those three games alone.

However, the 49ers only have nine total giveaways for the season and eliminated turnovers in their drubbing of Jacksonville last week. Tampa’s defense allows the fewest touchdowns per red zone trip of any team in the NFL, and we’re expecting a field goal barrage in the Bay Area this Sunday.