2023 NFL Best Bets – Week 10

After a split in Week 9, we find ourselves with a 10-7-2 record heading into this Sunday’s schedule. The Browns pitched a shutout at home against the Cardinals, allowing just 58 total yards on 41 plays and forcing three turnovers against a hapless Arizona offense.

That easy win preceded a loss on our under bet in the Cowboys-Eagles game that saw 31 points scored in the first half alone. Three second-half touchdowns meant a final score of 28-23, sinking our second play of the day.

We’ve handicapped three picks for this weekend’s slate and outlined our reasoning below.

Browns @ Ravens: UNDER 38.5 (FanDuel)

This meeting of AFC North rivals represents the top two defenses in terms of opponent yards per play. Baltimore is the best unit in the NFL by that measure and in scoring defense, and they’ve been notably better at home.

The Ravens have allowed two offensive touchdowns in four games at M&T Bank Stadium in 2023 and held the Browns to three points in Cleveland during a Week 4 tussle, albeit with Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing QB.

Cleveland’s sixth-ranked rush defense can negate the Ravens’ ground superiority, which is first in the league in yards and touchdowns. Combined with the Browns’ propensity for running, we expect stout defense and a running clock to be our allies in this play.

Titans +1.5 over Bucs (FanDuel)

The Bucs are built to stop a Titans team that overly relies on the run but may be less equipped to defend the Will Levis version of Tennessee’s offense. After getting torched by CJ Stroud at home last week, Tampa Bay has allowed 300+ yards passing in three of its previous four games.

Their run-stopping ability has been top-ten-caliber across the board, but teams that prioritize the run, like Philadelphia and Atlanta, each still rushed for more than 150 yards against the Bucs.

The Titans’ defense is third in the league at preventing opponent touchdowns in the red zone, and they’ve allowed just eight passing TDs in as many games this season.

The Bucs have relied on a 12:3 ratio of passing to rushing scores this season, so this matchup is another edition of strength vs. strength. We’re projecting Tennessee to win outright in Tampa this Sunday.

Giants @ Cowboys: UNDER 39.5 (FanDuel)

Dallas is one of the biggest favorites of the season this week, giving 17 points to the Giants in their 123rd regular-season meeting dating back to 1960. The Cowboys dominated the G-Men in every way during a 40-0 victory in Week 1 at MetLife Stadium and have now won five in a row in this series.

The two teams combined for 436 total yards in their season-opener, and three Giants turnovers added insult to injury. Both rushed for over 100 yards, but New York allowed seven sacks to the vaunted Cowboys’ pass rush.

The Giants have the worst scoring offense in the league and have been vulnerable on the ground, but Dallas’ rushing attack has surpassed 100 yards once in their last four games.

If the Cowboys are going to make life a living hell for the Giants’ offense again and struggle to move the ball on the ground, it should make for a low-scoring affair in Jerry World. We’ll play the under in this NFC East tie.