#11 Oklahoma vs #4 Alabama Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Pick

One year after one of the most shocking losses in Norman, #4 Alabama gets its shot at redemption as it hosts #11 Oklahoma this afternoon in a game that could define each team’s season and have CFP implications. Last year, the Sooners pummeled Alabama 24-3, and that loss isn’t forgotten in Tuscaloosa — and this time, the Crimson Tide is rolling in with serious momentum and a clear playoff path after dominating some of the best teams in college football.

Game Details and Betting Odds

This high-stakes SEC matchup kicks off later today in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, with the Crimson Tide as 6-point favorites at home with the total set at 45.5 points. Alabama sits at -225 on the moneyline, while Oklahoma backers can grab the Sooners as a dog at +185.

Alabama, holding an 8-1 record and 6-0 in the SEC, is in full control of its playoff future. A win keeps them on pace for a spot in the SEC Championship game. As for Oklahoma and its 7-2 record, it’s a must-win game to keep its head above water. A 3rd loss will most likely knock them out of CFP contention completely.

Matchup Breakdown and Key Stats

Ty Simpson is having a breakout year for Alabama with 2,461 passing yards, 21 TDs, and just a single pick. His ability to hit big plays, such as his 4 passes of 30+ yards last week against LSU, makes Alabama’s offense dangerous. Even when he misses, the threat is there, and that stretches defenses thin trying to cover all of his targets.

Oklahoma’s John Mateer hasn’t looked the same since thumb surgery. In fact, in the 4 games before the injury, he averaged 300+ yards passing per game, but since returning, that number has dropped to just 183.5 YPG, with 2 TDs and 4 interceptions in that span. He’s tried to make up for it with his legs, which include 80 rushing yards and a touchdown against Tennessee, but he’s clearly not in rhythm through the air.

Beyond one of the best QBs in college football, the Crimson Tide is winning with balance. They average 403.1 YPG, including 291.2 through the air, and score 32.8 PPG. They’re efficient, especially in the red zone, where they rank 16th nationally. Receiver Germie Bernard leads the team with 605 yards and 6 TDs, but the Tide spread the ball around well beyond just Bernard.

Oklahoma scores 28.9 PPG, with 236.7 passing yards and 137.2 rushing yards per game, but what really makes the Sooners stand out is their red-zone efficiency — they’ve converted all 28 red-zone trips into points this season. That’s the best mark in the country. The problem is what happens before they get there. Alabama’s defense ranks 8th nationally in red-zone stops and has held teams to limited chances.

On defense, Oklahoma is absolutely elite. They allow just 14.1 points per game, which is good for the best in the SEC, and just 264.2 total yards, ranking 11th nationally. They’ve shut down some of the best offenses, including Tennessee and South Carolina. But turnovers have been a thorn in their side. Oklahoma ranks 110th nationally in turnover margin at -5, with just 7 takeaways and 12 giveaways. That’s a glaring issue that you can bet Alabama will try to exploit.

Meanwhile, Alabama thrives in the turnover battle. They’ve only turned it over 6 times all year and sit at +10 on the margin, 4th-best nationally. That could be the difference in a tight game.

One hidden stat worth watching is the penalties. Oklahoma ranks 5th in penalties and struggles with discipline. Alabama is too efficient to give extra chances to.

Prediction — Alabama Keeps Rolling

Alabama is peaking at the right time, which is basically the entire season. They’re at home, on a long winning streak, and they have the better quarterback, better turnover margin, more explosive offense right now, and have shown up some of the best CFB teams. Simpson’s ability to hit deep shots will force Oklahoma’s defense to stretch out, opening up the short and intermediate game. It’s simply too much ground to cover.

Oklahoma’s defense is good enough to keep it close early in the game, but if Mateer continues to struggle post-surgery and the turnover issues continue, it’s going to snowball in the 2nd half. Alabama doesn’t just beat you — they make you pay for every mistake.

We expect the Tide to control the game with their relentless balance and poise. This is the revenge spot they’ve been waiting for for an entire year now.

• Prediction: Alabama 31, Oklahoma 20
• Best Bet: Alabama -6 at -108

Alabama’s defense should contain Mateer, and the turnover battle could tilt this game heavily in the Tide’s favor. With their home-field dominance and a clear edge at quarterback, we feel that backing Alabama to cover the spread is the smart play. 6 points isn’t too much to ask from a team that is carving up even the most elite defenses, and we don’t see Oklahoma being much more than anyone else they’ve routed.