Yankees vs. Rays Prediction: Can New York Avoid the Sweep in Tampa Bay?

The Bronx Bombers roll into Tropicana Field on Thursday evening staring at a season series they’d probably like to forget, and a Tampa Bay Rays club that has quietly built the best record in the American League. First pitch at 5:10 p.m. ET wraps up a four-game set that has gone about as poorly as possible for the Yankees, who have dropped the first three games by a combined score that includes a shutout loss on Wednesday night. New York enters at 50-42, sitting five games back of the division-leading Rays (54-36), and the Yankees have now lost 11 of their last 13 games overall. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has been the model of consistency, riding a strong homestand to push their AL East lead to five games with a chance to sweep the rival Yankees before the All-Star break.

A Series That’s Gotten Away From New York

The Rays have outscored the Yankees by a wide margin through the first three games, striking out New York’s lineup 45 times in the series and shutting them out 3-0 on Wednesday behind Jonathan Aranda’s three RBIs and 6 1/3 strong innings from Shane McClanahan. Tampa Bay improved to 2-5 in the season series after Wednesday’s win, meaning the finale offers the Yankees a chance to avoid being swept while Tampa Bay looks to lock up the tiebreaker edge between the two clubs.

Tampa Bay opened as a solid favorite in the finale, with the moneyline sitting around -155 for the Rays and +135 for the Yankees. Bettors looking to shop the number can check a DraftKings promo code or a FanDuel promo code before placing a wager on the finale. The total is set at 7.5 runs, and the run line has Tampa Bay at -1.5 while New York gets the plus-1.5 cushion. Books clearly view Tampa Bay’s superior pitching depth and red-hot form as reason enough to lay a significant number on the road underdog.

Injuries Piling Up for a Banged-Up Yankees Roster

New York’s lineup has been without several key pieces for weeks now, and it’s starting to show. Aaron Judge remains on the 10-day injured list with a rib issue, and Giancarlo Stanton hasn’t even resumed running yet as he continues to battle a calf strain setback, leaving his return firmly up in the air. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is day-to-day with toe discomfort after X-rays came back negative, but he’s been battling through it. On the pitching side, both Max Fried and Carlos Rodon are on the 15-day injured list with elbow issues, though Fried has begun throwing live batting practice and appears to be progressing toward a return. Clarke Schmidt remains out for the season on the 60-day IL. Tampa Bay isn’t at full strength either — outfielder Jake Fraley is out with a groin injury, and starter Steven Matz remains sidelined with an ankle problem — but the Rays have simply had enough pitching depth to survive the absences.

Cam Schlittler has been one of the lone bright spots for New York’s rotation this season, sitting at 8-5 with a sparkling 2.08 ERA and 123 strikeouts, though his last outing against Detroit was a rough one, allowing six earned runs in just four innings. Drew Rasmussen has been the workhorse for Tampa Bay, carrying a 7-4 record and 2.78 ERA into Thursday’s start, his 13th of the season, giving the Rays a legitimate front-line arm to close out the series. New York’s pitching staff has posted a bloated 3.94 ERA over its last 10 games and allowed 17 home runs in that stretch, a troubling trend against a Tampa Bay lineup that has found ways to manufacture runs all year. Fans hoping to catch the finale live can browse GameTime tickets for a last-minute trip to Tropicana Field.

Third baseman Ryan McMahon has settled into a regular role in the Yankees infield since joining the club last summer, wearing No. 19 in a nod to his father and former teammate Charlie Blackmon. He’s been part of a New York lineup that has struggled to find any rhythm in this series, striking out at an alarming rate against Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. The Rays’ collective bullpen has been outstanding of late, posting a 2.56 ERA over the last 10 games, which has made life difficult for a Yankees offense already dealing with too many injuries to its middle-of-the-order bats. Anyone tracking the market shift throughout the day can follow live MLB odds right up to first pitch.

Prediction and Best Bet

Tampa Bay has controlled nearly every facet of this series, and there’s little reason to expect that changes in the finale. The Rays have the better everyday lineup right now, a deeper bullpen, and a starter in Rasmussen who has been reliable all season. New York’s injury list is simply too long for the offense to consistently break through against good pitching, and Schlittler’s last start raises some concern about fatigue after a long summer workload.

• Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 5, New York Yankees 2
• Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline

With the Rays riding a five-game division lead and a completely lopsided series edge so far, laying the moneyline juice is the safer play than messing with the run line, especially with New York’s bullpen just as gassed as its lineup after three straight losses. New bettors can also compare a BetMGM promo code before locking in a final decision.