3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 26

Monday’s NHL slate is a short one, just three games, but two of them are late-night Western Conference matchups with plenty of shooters worth a look. When the board is this thin, shots on goal props are a smart place to focus. They do not require a puck to cross the goal line. A player just has to keep getting the puck on net, and the best shooters do that almost every night regardless of who is in goal.

For anyone new to this market, a shots on goal prop asks a simple question: will a player register more or fewer shots on net than the number the sportsbook sets? Today’s three picks all rely on the same ingredients, which are high shot volume, big minutes, and a matchup that should keep the puck in the offensive zone. Lines and prices move, so check your book before you bet.

Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs visit Calgary at 8:30 p.m. ET. Matthews has 9 goals and 10 assists in 13 games, and he has put 39 shots on net so far, good for roughly 3.0 per game. That sits just under the 3.5 line, which is why this is a price-driven play. FanDuel has the over at +106, so you are being paid a little better than even money on a player who regularly takes four or more shots when the game opens up.

His recent log shows the volatility. In his last five games Matthews has recorded 2, 4, 3, 3 and 1 shots, newest first, and he went over 3.5 in five of his last ten. The latest game was a quiet two-shot night in a 7-2 win in Edmonton, but he still scored. A model projection from WizLine puts him at about 3.47 shots tonight, with around 20 and a half minutes of ice time expected. That is within a rounding error of the line, and plus-money pricing turns that near coin flip into a bet worth making.

Alex DeBrincat Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

The Detroit Red Wings travel to Edmonton for the 9:30 p.m. ET nightcap, and Alex DeBrincat is the engine of their offense. He leads Detroit with 6 goals, 6 assists and 12 points, and he has taken 42 shots in 11 games, an average of 3.8 per night. That already clears the 3.5 line on a per-game basis, and FanDuel is offering +134 on the over, so you are getting a real price on a player whose average is above the number.

The recent trend is even stronger. Over his last three games DeBrincat has 12 shots, an average of 4.0, and he fired five shots on goal in the game where he scored his 300th career goal on October 20. He also logs more than 20 minutes a night and runs the first power play unit, which is a steady source of extra looks. A WizLine projection of about 3.42 shots is slightly under the line, but the averages and the plus-money price tilt this toward the over. Oilers games have also featured plenty of scoring lately, and a high-event game tends to mean more shots on both sides.

Viktor Arvidsson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal

Viktor Arvidsson is a lower-profile pick, but the number is much lower too. He has 27 shots through 11 games, about 2.5 per night, with four goals and four assists. At 2.5 the line sits right on his average, and the over is the side that needs three shots. He has hit that mark in six of his last ten games, including three shots on October 20 in Seattle. He also returns to Rogers Place, where he spent the 2024-25 season with Edmonton, and he skates in the top six, where he plays close to 20 minutes most nights.

The price here is minus money at -120 on DraftKings, so it is not a bargain on its face. Dimers’ model gives the over a 58.7 percent chance with a 4.1 percent edge, which is a thin but real advantage. The matchup helps as well. Detroit’s goaltending has been shaky, with John Gibson sporting a 3.44 goals-against average, which can push games toward track meets where both teams generate chances. If a book has moved the line to 3.5 or the over to a worse price, pass on this one.

Lock These In

None of these bets requires a hot goalie to go cold or a lucky bounce. They need a good shooter to keep doing what he has done all season, and in two cases the books are paying you plus money to take that bet. Here are the three plays, with prices as of Monday morning. Check your own sportsbook for the current number, and see our live NHL odds page to compare lines.

• Auston Matthews OVER 3.5 shots on goal (+106 FanDuel)
• Alex DeBrincat OVER 3.5 shots on goal (+134 FanDuel)
• Viktor Arvidsson OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-120 DraftKings)

Shots props are about volume and patience, so keep your stakes small and let the numbers do the work. If you are new to betting, our betting calculator is a quick way to see what each price pays before you place a wager.