Brewers vs. Rays Prediction: World Series Game 3 Picks and Best Bet

The Brewers are two wins from their first World Series title, and Game 3 at Tropicana Field is where Tampa Bay either gets back in the series or falls into a hole almost no team escapes.

Quick take:

• Pick: Brewers moneyline
• Why: Milwaukee’s bullpen has been nearly untouchable all October, and it has won both close games in this series.
• The number to watch: a 1.24 postseason bullpen ERA for the Brewers, against 3.62 for the Rays

The Brewers lead the World Series 2-0 after taking both games at American Family Field by a single run, 3-2 in the opener and 5-4 in Game 2. Now the series shifts to Tropicana Field for Monday night’s Game 3, with first pitch set for 8:00 PM ET on FOX.

Milwaukee is 9-1 in the playoffs and has won six straight. Tampa Bay is 7-4 in October and 4-1 at home, so this is not a team that folds when the lights come on in St. Petersburg. Still, the Rays have to find a way to solve a bullpen that has allowed just one run over 10 innings in this series.

The Rays Are Short Favorites in a Coin-Flip Price

The market sees this one as close to a pick’em. At FanDuel, Tampa Bay sits as a slight favorite at -120 on the moneyline, with the Brewers at +102 as the underdog. The total is 6.5 runs, with the over at -152 and the under at +124, and the run line has Milwaukee at -1.5 (+180) and Tampa Bay at +1.5 (-220). Milwaukee has been a profitable underdog in October, going 3-0 when priced on the wrong side of the line, so a plus-money number on a team that keeps winning is hard to ignore. For a broader look at the board, check the live MLB odds page.

Recent Form

Both clubs arrived here as the best teams in their leagues, and the form data below shows how different their paths were. The head-to-head record is a new tracked dataset, so it may look thin for now.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Two Hot Arms and a Bullpen Gap

Robert Gasser gets the ball for Milwaukee. The lefty went 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in the regular season, but he has been a different pitcher since late August. He has won both of his postseason starts and allowed just one run over nine innings, and he has not given up more than one run in any of his last five outings. It will be his first career appearance against the Rays.

Freddy Peralta answers for Tampa Bay, and he has his own October résumé. The Rays have won all four of his playoff appearances (three starts and one relief outing), and he has allowed just two runs across 16 1/3 innings. He finished the regular season 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, and he has not allowed more than one run in any of his last nine starts. He came to Tampa Bay as a trade-deadline acquisition and has yet to face his former Brewers teammates in this series, which adds a little spice to the matchup.

The Brewers’ postseason bullpen ERA is 1.24, while the Rays’ is 3.62.

That gap is the whole story. If both starters turn in six decent innings, the game will be decided in the seventh, eighth and ninth, and the Brewers’ relief group has been the best in the field. Five relievers blanked Tampa Bay after the first inning in Game 2, after the Rays hung four runs on the board early.

Cooper Pratt is a good example of how this team keeps winning. The 22-year-old rookie shortstop wears No. 12, hit a solo home run in Game 2 and has quickly become a fixture in a lineup that ranked second in the majors in runs scored this season. William Contreras is hitting .395 in the playoffs with 25 total bases in 10 games, and Jackson Chourio leads the club with eight RBIs this October.

The Rays are not short on firepower either. Junior Caminero hit 42 home runs this season, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda each added 22, and Liam Hicks went deep in Game 2. Tampa Bay also tied Milwaukee for the major league lead in batting average at .268. Their problem has not been talent. It has been late-game execution against Milwaukee’s relievers.

There are a few injury notes to track. Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan is out for the postseason, and Brandon Woodruff has been added to Milwaukee’s roster but has not pitched in the series after being out since July 4. Nothing new has been reported on either side. If you are weighing where to place a bet, our DraftKings promo code page lays out the current new-user offer.

Prediction and Best Bet

Peralta and Gasser should both keep this one tight, and in a tight game Milwaukee’s bullpen and its knack for comeback wins give it the edge. The Brewers have won three playoff games as an underdog, and plus money on the better late-inning team is the right side.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Brewers 4, Rays 3
2. Best Bet: Brewers on the moneyline

Take the Brewers at plus money and let the bullpen do the work.