Dream vs. Valkyries Game 5 Prediction: WNBA Finals Pick and Best Bet

Everything in the WNBA Finals has come down to one question: which team’s best player shows up when the other team’s defense is at its most suffocating.

Quick take:

• Pick: Golden State Valkyries -1.5
• Why: The Valkyries have a Game 4 blueprint that shut down Angel Reese, and they get the deciding swing game at Chase Center.
• The number to watch: Turnovers. Golden State forced 18 Atlanta giveaways in Game 4 and committed only nine of its own.

The Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream are tied 2-2 in the best-of-seven WNBA Finals, and Game 5 tips at 8:00 PM ET on Monday at Chase Center in San Francisco. Two franchises chasing a first championship are now playing a best-of-three, with the Valkyries holding home court for the swing game.

The series has been a pendulum. Golden State took Game 1 by a 68-64 score, Atlanta answered with two wins including a 97-71 rout in Game 3, and the Valkyries evened things up with a 67-62 victory in Atlanta on Saturday.

Odds Show a Coin Flip With a Slight Home Lean

The market has barely separated these two. Golden State is a 1.5-point home favorite with the total sitting at 149.5, and the moneylines hover right around even, roughly -117 for the Valkyries and -105 for the Dream. Atlanta was a comfortable favorite for Game 4 and still lost outright, which is a good reminder of how quickly this series has been punishing the team the market trusts.

Books are essentially telling you home court is worth about a possession and nothing more. If you believe the Game 4 defensive adjustments travel back to San Francisco, the Valkyries side at a short number is where the value sits. You can also check the latest numbers on our live sports betting odds page before tip.

Recent Form

The form and head-to-head data below shows how tight this matchup really is. Golden State won the regular-season meetings, and the Finals have split evenly, with the home team winning only two of the four games so far.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

The Reese vs. Williams Scoring Duel

The winner of the scoring battle between Angel Reese and Gabby Williams has led their team to victory in all four games. That is the cleanest way to read this series.

Reese, the league’s Defensive Player of the Year, exploded for 30 and 21 points in Atlanta’s two wins. In those games she averaged 25.5 points on 60.7 percent shooting. In the two losses, that fell to 11.0 points on 30.4 percent. In Game 4 she managed eight points on 2-of-12 shooting and was scoreless in the first quarter.

Williams mirrors that swing. In Golden State’s two wins she has averaged 21.5 points, compared with 14.5 in the two losses. She scored 26 in Game 1 and 17 in Game 4.

Reese averaged 25.5 points in Dream wins and just 11.0 in Dream losses, the widest personal swing of this series.

Kiah Stokes is the reason the Valkyries have a plan for it. She set a Finals record with 14 blocks through four games, 3.5 per game, and grabbed 16 rebounds in Game 4. Golden State’s coaches have pointed to her as the one who has to own the Reese matchup, and she has.

Turnovers are the other lever. Golden State scored 16 points off 18 Atlanta turnovers in Game 4 while turning it over just nine times. In Atlanta’s two wins, the Dream forced 19 and 17 turnovers and won the points-off-turnovers battle by a combined 26 points in games decided by 40 total. Whoever is cleaner with the ball wins this game.

On the Atlanta side, Allisha Gray leads the Dream at 19.0 points per game, and Rhyne Howard admitted the team’s sloppy play cost them a chance to move one win from the franchise’s first title. Gray went 1-for-7 from the field in Game 4, so Atlanta is due for a bounce-back from its second option. Tiffany Hayes, who scored all 13 of her Game 4 points after halftime, gives the Valkyries a second scorer to lean on at home.

Prediction and Best Bet

Golden State has the better recipe for a one-possession game. The Valkyries lean on defense, held Atlanta to just 26 first-half points in Game 4, its second-lowest scoring half of the postseason, and have held the Dream to 65 points or fewer in both of their wins. At home, with the crowd behind them, the Valkyries should make Reese work for everything again and keep the turnover count manageable.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 70, Atlanta Dream 66
2. Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -1.5

Take the Valkyries at the short number. If they win the turnover battle again, this game should look a lot like Game 4.