Colts vs. Patriots Preseason Prediction: Backup QB Battles Take Center Stage at Gillette Stadium

The NFL preseason kicks off in Foxborough on Thursday night when the Indianapolis Colts visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET. It’s the first preseason meeting between these two franchises since 1992, and while neither team will lean on its top-line starters for long, there’s plenty worth watching for fans trying to get an early read on both rosters ahead of the regular season.

New England enters having wrapped three weeks of training camp plus a joint practice session with Indianapolis on Tuesday, and it’s the sixth straight year the Patriots have opened the preseason with a home date. Colts coach Shane Steichen has already signaled that Daniel Jones won’t play, opening the door for Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson Sr. to split extensive snaps as they continue jockeying for the backup job behind Jones. On the other side, Mike Vrabel confirmed Drake Maye will sit out too, meaning both teams’ presumptive Week 1 starting quarterbacks will be spectators for this one.

Why the Preseason Odds Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Markets have the Patriots as short home favorites, with spreads ranging from Colts -2.5 down to -1.5 depending on the book — meaning New England is often listed anywhere from a 1.5 to 2.5-point pick, with moneyline prices sitting around Colts -125 to -150 and Patriots +105 to +125. The total sits in the 36.5 to 38.5 range, reflecting the expectation of a run-heavy, backup-laden night with limited offensive rhythm on either side. Bettors comparing numbers across books can check the latest NFL odds before kickoff.

Preseason lines like this one are notoriously soft. Books post them more as a formality than a sharp read, since neither coaching staff is going to reveal its real offensive or defensive gameplan in Week 1 of the exhibition slate. With Jones and Maye both out, and most first-team units expected to play sparingly if at all, the lines are really pricing depth-chart battles more than actual team strength. New bettors looking to get in the game can use a DraftKings promo code or the Caesars promo code to bet the preseason slate.

The Roster Battles Worth Watching

For the Colts, the backup quarterback competition is the headline storyline. Leonard and Richardson are both listed at the same spot on Indianapolis’s unofficial depth chart, and both are expected to get real run behind Jones as they compete for QB2 heading into the regular season. It’s a rare case where a preseason opener could meaningfully shape a 53-man roster decision. Elsewhere for Indy, DJ Giddens and rookie Seth McGowan will battle for carries behind Jonathan Taylor, while rookie center Jalen Farmer pushes for reps on the interior offensive line.

New England’s night will be much more about complementary pieces than headliners. With Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrell Jennings all expected to sit, the Patriots’ backfield reps figure to go to Lan Larison and seventh-round rookie Jam Miller, with newly signed Hassan Haskins in the mix as well after replacing an injured Myles Montgomery on the roster. At wide receiver, second-year players Kyle Williams and Efton Chism III should see extensive snaps in a crowded room that features veteran additions A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs at the top, meaning roster spots below them are far from guaranteed.

Along the offensive and defensive lines, New England’s depth competitions are also worth tracking. Caleb Lomu and Marcus Bryant have essentially swapped roles behind Will Campbell and Morgan Moses at tackle, while Joshua Farmer and Leonard Taylor III continue jostling for interior defensive line snaps behind starters Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. At linebacker, undrafted rookie Khalil Jacobs has reportedly overtaken veteran K.J. Britt on the depth chart in recent practices — the kind of underdog storyline preseason openers are made for.

Indianapolis brings a defense that returns Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward Sr. at cornerback, with rookie safety A.J. Haulcy already installed as a starter opposite Camryn Bynum. Rookie linebacker CJ Allen has also earned first-team reps in the middle, an encouraging sign for a Colts defense hoping its 2026 draft class contributes early. None of those Colts starters figure to play extensively Thursday, but the level of talent on the back end suggests Indianapolis’s second- and third-stringers will still be tested by anything New England’s offense manages to put together. Fans making the trip to Foxborough can find last-minute seats through GameTime tickets or SeatGeek.

Prediction and Best Bet

With both likely Week 1 starting quarterbacks out and backup battles dictating snap counts on both sides, this projects as a low-scoring, mistake-prone preseason opener. Indianapolis gets extended, meaningful look at both Leonard and Richardson, and that kind of sustained rep count for two competing quarterbacks with something to play for should give the Colts’ offense a slight edge in execution over a Patriots group leaning on its third and fourth string skill players in the second half.

• Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 20, New England Patriots 16
• Best Bet: Colts on the moneyline

The best value here is fading the short home-favorite tag New England carries on paper. Preseason moneylines rarely reflect true team strength, and with Indianapolis handing real, extended reps to two quarterbacks fighting for a job — as opposed to New England’s more diffuse backfield and receiver rotations — the Colts have the better setup for a competent, complete performance on both sides of the ball Thursday night. Anyone hedging a preseason futures position can also run the numbers through a hedge bet calculator before locking in a wager.