3 NFL Passing Props to Back This Sunday

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off before breakfast for East Coast bettors, with Texans and Jaguars at Wembley Stadium at 9:30 a.m. ET, and it does not let up until Dallas and Green Bay close things out on Sunday Night Football. Sunday is stacked with offense, and three quarterbacks stand out when you look at the passing prop markets.

If you are new to player props, the idea is simple: instead of picking a winner, you bet whether one player goes over or under a number set by the sportsbook. Quarterback passing props are a great place to start because the logic is easy to follow. Look at how the quarterback has been playing, how the opposing defense has held up, and what the game is likely to look like. Here are three bets where those three pieces line up.

Matthew Stafford Over 279.5 Passing Yards

The Los Angeles Rams host the Arizona Cardinals at 4:05 p.m. ET, and Matthew Stafford’s yardage line has sat around 279.5 at FanDuel (-114), with some books a few yards higher. That number looks low for a quarterback averaging 314.4 passing yards per game with 1,572 yards through five games. Last Monday night against Buffalo, Stafford went 40-for-54 for 383 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams have thrown for 1,538 yards as a team, more than any offense in the league.

The matchup helps even more. Arizona is 1-4, has the worst point differential among the teams playing this week, and has allowed 21 touchdowns in five games, more than any team in the NFL. The Cardinals are also thin in the secondary: safety Andrew Wingard is out, and Budda Baker (groin) and Zaven Collins (hip) are both questionable after missing Friday’s practice. When a defense is hunting for bodies in the back end, a veteran like Stafford tends to find the open man.

The one thing to respect is game script. The Rams are double-digit favorites, and a big lead can mean more handoffs late. But Stafford is throwing so much, and so efficiently, that he has plenty of cushion to clear this number even if the Rams pull away in the fourth quarter. Before you bet, check the live NFL odds for the best number.

Dak Prescott Over 277.5 Passing Yards

Sunday Night Football from Lambeau Field is the one pick here that goes against the surface-level numbers. Green Bay allows just 181.0 passing yards per game, fifth-best in the league, so at first glance this looks like a spot to fade a quarterback. But that stat needs context: three of the Packers’ five opponents have been backup quarterbacks. Dak Prescott will be the best passer Green Bay has faced all year.

Prescott is averaging 276.2 yards per game, completing 67.2% of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions, and he has thrown for 316 yards or more in each of his last two outings, including 316 against Tampa Bay last week. Dallas is also a road underdog, and the total has climbed into the low 50s, which points to a game where the Cowboys have to keep throwing. Prescott ranks among the league’s best passers against zone coverage, and Green Bay’s defense leans heavily on zone. Green Bay’s pass rush is also thin, ranking 29th in pass rush win rate, so Prescott should have time for deeper routes to develop.

CeeDee Lamb practiced in full this week after a quad bruise and is not expected to have limitations, and George Pickens gives Dallas a second wideout who can win downfield. Several Packers defensive backs, including Keisean Nixon and Benjamin St-Juste, are listed as questionable. Lines vary by book, so shop around and make sure you are getting a number at or near 277.5.

C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

This one comes with plus-money payouts, roughly +115 to +130 depending on the book, which makes it a nice change of pace. The Texans face the Jaguars at Wembley in the early window, and Houston’s offense looks like it has found a groove. Over the last two games, since Nico Collins returned from a hamstring injury, C.J. Stroud has completed 72.3% of his throws with three touchdown passes. For the season he is averaging 280.4 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and zero interceptions, and Houston is tied for the NFL lead with 21 explosive pass plays.

Jacksonville has been vulnerable through the air. The Jaguars have given up the second-most passing yards in the league, including 608 yards on throws of 15 or more yards downfield, also second-most. Left tackle Anton Harrison is out for Jacksonville, which could mean extra pressure on Trevor Lawrence and quicker possessions for Houston’s defense to cash in on. Houston also acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. from Arizona this week and he is expected to play, giving Stroud another weapon in a revived passing game.

Keep your expectations realistic. Stroud has thrown two or more touchdowns in 22 of 57 career games, so this is not a bet that hits every week, and the total is a low 42.5. But the plus-money price accounts for that, and the matchup gives him a better shot than his career average suggests.

Sunday’s Edge at Quarterback

All three of these picks share the same DNA: a quarterback who is throwing a lot, a defense that gives up chunk plays or has holes in the secondary, and a number that looks a touch low. Always compare lines across sportsbooks, since a half-yard or a few cents of juice adds up over a season. If you are looking for a place to play, our sportsbook reviews can help, and please remember to bet only what you can afford to lose.

• Matthew Stafford OVER 279.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Dak Prescott OVER 277.5 passing yards (about -113)
• C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115 to +130)

Odds and lines move throughout the weekend, so check your book before locking anything in. Enjoy Week 6.