Rays vs Guardians Prediction: ALCS Game 4 Picks, Odds and Best Bet

The Rays’ lineup, built to put the ball in play, struck out 13 times in Game 3, and Cleveland now has a rainout-delayed chance to push them to the brink.

Quick take:

• Pick: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
• Why: Cleveland is handing the ball to an opener and a bullpen game, while the Rays’ lineup is far too contact-heavy to stay quiet for a second straight game.
• The number to watch: 13 strikeouts for a Rays lineup that struck out less than any team in the majors during the regular season

The Cleveland Guardians lead the American League Championship Series 2-1 after Petey Halpin’s go-ahead two-run homer in the fifth inning of Game 3 turned a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win. Game 4 was supposed to be Friday night at Progressive Field, but rain pushed it to Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET, with Game 5 bumped to Sunday afternoon.

The rainout gave both managers a chance to rework their plans. Neither bit.

Tampa Bay (98-64, AL East champions) is sticking with right-hander Nick Martinez, who was available out of the bullpen all series and went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA during the regular season. Cleveland (85-77, its third straight AL Central title) is sticking with right-hander Shawn Armstrong as an opener, with a bullpen game expected to follow. Joey Cantillo, Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi are the likely bulk-inning options.

A Pick ‘Em Line With a Bullpen Game on One Side

The market sees this as a coin flip. The Rays are slight favorites at around -112 on the moneyline with Cleveland right behind at roughly -104 to -108, and the total is 6.5 runs. The run line has Tampa Bay at -1.5 with plus-money returns in the +153 to +166 range, while Cleveland +1.5 costs close to -190. In other words, the books are not giving anyone an edge, so the decision comes down to which side has the more stable path to nine innings. If you want to compare numbers before first pitch, the live MLB odds page tracks the current board.

Recent Form

This series has been a tug-of-war: Cleveland took Game 1 by a 7-3 score, Tampa Bay answered with a 3-1 win in Game 2, and Cleveland grabbed Game 3 by a run. The form and head-to-head data below shows how each club has been trending heading into Saturday.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Rays’ Bats Should Bounce Back

Game 3 was an outlier for Tampa Bay, not a trend. The Rays had three hits and a walk in the loss, and Cleveland retired 16 of the final 17 batters Tampa Bay sent to the plate. Gavin Williams struck out nine over five innings, and Daniel Espino, Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis and closer Cade Smith finished it off. Junior Caminero alone struck out four times.

This Rays lineup led the American League in batting average and struck out less than any team in the majors during the regular season, yet it whiffed 13 times in Game 3 after combining for 14 strikeouts in the first two games.

That is the number that matters. A contact-first lineup does not usually stay that cold, and Saturday’s matchup is friendlier than Thursday’s. Instead of a starter working through the order, Tampa Bay sees Armstrong for a short stretch and then a parade of relievers. Armstrong’s primary job is to handle right-handed hitters Yandy Diaz and Caminero, who have batted leadoff and third for the Rays. After that, the Rays will see a different arm every couple of innings, which is exactly the kind of setup a contact-oriented lineup can work through.

Martinez is not the ace of this staff, and he is not being asked to be. In his lone start this postseason, in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees, he allowed two runs over 3 2/3 innings. The Rays only need him to hand a close game to a bullpen that has been excellent. Tyler Wells and Steven Matz each worked two scoreless innings in relief of Griffin Jax in Game 3, and Freddy Peralta threw six shutout innings in Game 2.

The other side of the ledger is real, too. Cleveland has won five of its last six playoff games, Jose Ramirez has been a constant at the plate, and Chase DeLauter homered in Game 1 and doubled in Game 2. Halpin, a 24-year-old center fielder, is now 4 for 11 with a home run in the past four games. The Guardians are dangerous, and the forecast of light showers, a stiff wind and temperatures in the low 50s only adds to the unpredictability.

Still, bullpen games are fragile. If Cleveland has to cover 27 outs with one opener and a patchwork of relievers, one blown matchup can swing the night. If you want to see what a pick ’em line really pays, a betting calculator makes the math simple.

Prediction and Best Bet

Take the Rays to even the series. The lineup is due for a normal night, the bullpen has been steady, and a near pick ’em side is a better value than paying Cleveland’s steep price on the run line.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Rays 5, Guardians 3
2. Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline

A series tied 2-2 is where playoff baseball gets interesting, and the Rays are the better bet to get there.