No FBS Coach Fired Yet: Why the College Football Coaching Carousel Is Frozen and What Hot-Seat Odds Say

It is the middle of October, and not a single Football Bowl Subdivision head coach has been fired this season. That is a sharp break from a year ago, when seven coaches, including James Franklin at Penn State, DeShaun Foster at UCLA and Brent Pry at Virginia Tech, had already lost their jobs by this point. The coaching carousel that usually spins by Week 7 is, for now, frozen in place.

The reason comes down to money. Last year’s wave of firings produced a record price tag of roughly $270 million in buyouts, according to reporting from The Athletic, and schools are now paying players through revenue sharing on top of everything else. A buyout is simply the money a school owes a coach if it ends his contract early. This fall, that bill is colliding with a second, newer one: the cost of the roster itself.

Why College Football Programs Are Holding Off on Firing Coaches

Rosters at the top of the sport now cost between $30 million and $40 million or more, and a majority of Power 4 programs are spending more than $20 million on players, with a few nearing $50 million. When a school fires a coach, it may owe the buyout, then owe the departing roster, then need fresh money to build a new roster and staff for the next coach. Industry sources told Fox Sports that administrators are weighing a stark choice: spend a huge sum to start over, or put a smaller amount into the roster and give the current coach another shot.

The transfer portal adds another wrinkle: it now opens five days after a new full-time coach is hired, or 30 days after a firing if no replacement is named, so there is no instant rebuild window.

The patience is already paying off in places. Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell went 5-7 and 4-8 in his first two seasons, but after the school increased its NIL resources, the Badgers are 4-1 and recently rallied from a 17-point deficit at Penn State. Florida State’s Mike Norvell entered the year on one of the hottest seats in the country and is still employed. South Carolina’s Shane Beamer survived an overtime loss to Kentucky and bounced back with a win over Florida.

The Hot-Seat Names to Watch This Offseason

None of this means the carousel has stopped. Fox Sports reports that Colorado, Maryland, NC State and South Carolina remain possible openings this offseason, with larger jobs such as USC and Florida State capable of triggering a chain reaction.

Colorado’s Deion Sanders is the most visible case. The Buffaloes are 2-3 after a 29-7 loss to Texas Tech, and Sanders is 18-24 in four seasons in Boulder, including a 9-4 mark in 2024 and a 3-9 finish in 2025. USA Today estimates that firing him after this season would cost about $26 million, and ESPN lists his buyout at $26.1 million. Reports also note a projected $27 million athletic department deficit, and that athletic director Fernando Lovo did not hire Sanders. ESPN’s Pete Thamel named Sanders among six coaches whose situations could shape the next carousel. The others on that list include USC’s Lincoln Riley, whose buyout is listed at $70 million, and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, though ESPN is clear that Clemson is not firing Swinney.

Texas A&M’s Mike Elko, now 3-3, has also drawn heat after a loss to Missouri, though he is early in his tenure.

What the Coach-Fired Odds Say About the Market

Sportsbooks have long offered futures on which coach will be the first to go, and it is a useful way for newer bettors to see how the market reads a situation. The most recent public price we could find is a preseason list from BetOnline, reported on Aug. 25, for the first Power 4 coach fired in 2026. Norvell sat at the top at 3/1, followed by Maryland’s Mike Locksley at 4/1, Dave Aranda at 5/1, Bill Belichick at 7/1 and Fickell at 8/1. Beamer was listed at 11/1, Riley at 12/1, and Sanders at 25/1. Those numbers are from late August and have almost certainly moved since, so treat them as a snapshot of expectations before the season began, not a current line.

The lesson is how little those futures have paid off so far. A coach-fired market can sit unresolved for weeks, and any ticket on a name like Norvell or Locksley is now tied to a school’s willingness to absorb a massive payout, not just wins and losses. In plain terms, the odds measure how likely a firing is, but the buyout and roster math decides when one actually happens.

There is also a ripple effect for game-day markets. Struggling teams under pressure, like Colorado and South Carolina, carry extra uncertainty in point spreads and win totals, since a midseason change or a roster shake-up can alter how a team plays. If you track point spreads on live NCAAF odds, watching how lines treat these programs week to week is a quick way to see how much the market still believes in them. Remember that a hot seat is never a guarantee, and sports betting always involves risk.

For now, the story to follow is the calendar. If the money keeps the carousel frozen through November, the real action may not begin until the regular season ends, when Colorado, Florida State, South Carolina and others find out whether their schools are finally willing to pay up.