3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 16: Malkin, Pastrnak, MacKinnon

Friday night’s NHL board is a short one, with just two games on the schedule. That’s a good thing if you like your props focused: Pittsburgh visits Colorado at 9:00 PM ET, and Boston heads to Anaheim at 10:00 PM ET. When the slate is this thin, the three best shots on goal props tend to jump off the page.

Shots on goal props are one of the easiest places to start if you’re new to player props, because you don’t need a goal to cash. You just need a player who shoots a lot, gets plenty of ice time and plays in a game where the puck is on his stick. All three players below check those boxes, and I’ll explain exactly why each one stands out.

Evgeni Malkin Over 1.5 Shots on Goal

Malkin sits on the second line for Pittsburgh alongside Tommy Novak and Egor Chinakhov, and he is playing 18:17 a night. Through seven games he has 16 shots on goal, which works out to better than two per game. He also has three goals and five points in that stretch, so he’s carrying a real scoring touch right now.

Malkin put pucks on net in the first and second periods of Pittsburgh’s loss at Chicago earlier this week, including a snap shot that Spencer Knight had to stop. That is exactly the kind of volume we want from an over 1.5 bet. The best price on the board is about -150, and Dimers puts the probability of him getting there at 64.3%, a 4.3% edge over what that price implies.

The matchup helps too. Colorado is expected to start Mackenzie Blackwood, who carries a 3.04 goals-against average and a .879 save percentage, and Pittsburgh is a sizable underdog in this one, so the Penguins should spend plenty of time pushing for offense. If you want to price out a bet like this, a betting calculator can show you what that -150 actually needs to win.

David Pastrnak Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

If there is a safer volume shooter on the board, I haven’t found one. Pastrnak has 27 shots on goal in seven games, a 3.9 per game average that makes him the top forward on Boston in that category. He also leads the Bruins with eight points, and he led the entire NHL with 407 shots on goal last season while playing all 82 games.

Recent form backs it up. He fired four shots in a 4-3 overtime win over Winnipeg and four more against Philadelphia on Oct. 10, and tracked hit rates show him going over 3.5 in six of his last seven games. The line is 3.5 and the best price is around +100, so you’re getting even money on a player who has averaged more than that number all season.

Anaheim is a fair spot to attack. The Ducks rank 21st in shots allowed, giving up about 27.0 per game, and they are thin down the middle with Ryan Poehling out and captain Mikael Granlund possibly out as well. Lukas Dostal is likely in goal, and his .892 save percentage and 2.98 GAA mean Boston does not need to dominate the puck for Pastrnak to find his looks.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

MacKinnon is the headliner on the other end of the board. He leads Colorado with 12 points on five goals and seven assists, and his 29 shots on goal across seven games is a 4.1 per game pace, the best among Avalanche forwards. He centers the top line with Artturi Lehkonen and Nazem Kadri, and he is the first name any defense game plans around.

The over 3.5 is posted at about -140 on ESPN’s board and has been priced as steep as -164 elsewhere, so shop around and check your book before you lock it in. That is a heavier price than the other two plays, but the logic is simple: Colorado is roughly a -200 home favorite, and favorites at home tend to shoot a lot. One betting preview noted MacKinnon has cleared 3.5 shots in three straight home games.

Pittsburgh’s Arturs Silovs is expected in goal, and his .885 save percentage doesn’t scare anybody. If you’re working through which book to use, our DraftKings promo code page is a good place to start.

Lock These In

All three of these plays come down to the same simple idea: high-usage shooters in games where their team should have the puck. Lines move, so check your sportsbook for the current number before you bet. Here are the three plays for Friday, Oct. 16:

• Evgeni Malkin OVER 1.5 shots on goal (best price about -150)
• David Pastrnak OVER 3.5 shots on goal (about +100)
• Nathan MacKinnon OVER 3.5 shots on goal (about -140, check your book)

A two-game slate means fewer places to hide, so treat these as the core of your card and keep your stakes reasonable. Bet within your budget, and if you ever need support, our responsible gambling page has resources.