Week 6 of the NFL season opens before breakfast for East Coast fans, with Texans and Jaguars kicking off at Wembley in London at 9:30 a.m. ET, and it does not slow down until Sunday Night Football in Green Bay. In between, there is an unbeaten Kansas City team looking to stay perfect against a winless Chargers squad, Josh Allen and the Bills heading to Las Vegas on a short week, and a very tight game between the Cowboys and Packers. If you are newer to football or betting and just want to know which games matter and why, here is a plain-English guide to the biggest games on Sunday’s slate.
The first game of the day is also one of the most important for the AFC South standings. Jacksonville (4-1) is a 2.5-point favorite at Wembley, with the total set around 42.5 points. In plain terms, that means oddsmakers think the Jaguars win by a field goal or so and that this will be a fairly low-scoring game. The moneyline is roughly Jaguars -145 and Texans +120, so Houston is the underdog but not a long shot.
Jacksonville has been one of the league’s most consistent teams, winning 12 of its last 13 games, and last week it held off the Eagles with a last-second field goal. Trevor Lawrence threw for 331 yards in that game, and the Jaguars also lean on a ground game that averages about 114 rushing yards per game. Their injury list is mostly manageable, though left tackle Anton Harrison is on injured reserve and long snapper Ross Matiscik and cornerback Montaric Brown are out.
Houston (1-4) has the tougher week. Running back David Montgomery is out with a groin injury, safety Jalen Pitre is out, and wide receiver Tank Dell went to injured reserve. The Texans average only about 79 rushing yards per game, which means C.J. Stroud is likely to throw a lot. Houston does have one thing going for it: it won its first road game of the year last week, and it has a strong record in divisional road games in recent seasons. Still, the Jaguars are healthier and playing better, and the pick here is Jacksonville to win a close one.
The Chiefs (4-0) are home favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 points depending on the sportsbook, with a total of about 41.5 to 42.5 and a moneyline near -450. Kansas City is coming off its bye week after a 30-27 win in Las Vegas, and Patrick Mahomes has the team unbeaten after a recovery from a serious injury. If you want to see how a bet like this pays out, our betting calculator makes the math easy.
The Chargers (0-5) are the opposite story. Justin Herbert has thrown seven interceptions and has already been sacked 17 times, and the offensive line is a mess. Tackle Joe Alt and guard Kayode Awosika are both out, along with receiver Tre Harris, cornerback Donte Jackson and safety Derwin James. Losing that many starters on one side of the ball is a big problem against any opponent, and especially in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs are not perfect either. Receiver Rashee Rice is out with a hamstring and knee injury, Tyquan Thornton is on injured reserve, and left tackle Josh Simmons is also out. Kansas City has only three sacks through four games despite having Chris Jones and George Karlaftis up front. The Chiefs should win, but a spread this big is a lot to lay when the offense is short on receivers.
Buffalo (4-1) is a 4.5-point favorite at Las Vegas (3-2), and the total of 53.5 is one of the highest on the board, so expect points. The moneyline is roughly Bills -205 and Raiders +170 to +200. The Bills are coming off an overtime win over the Rams on Monday night and stayed out West on a short week, while Las Vegas is coming off a 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Allen is the reason Buffalo is a favorite. He has thrown for 1,249 yards and seven touchdowns this season and has eight rushing touchdowns, second most in the league. Against the Rams he threw for 210 yards and ran for 121 more. Several Bills are questionable, including receivers DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer and defensive lineman Ed Oliver, though all were limited rather than sidelined by Friday.
For the Raiders, tight end Brock Bowers is the player to watch. He has 24 catches for 312 yards and three touchdowns in three games since returning from a knee issue, and he practiced fully this week. The weakness is a running game that managed just 27 yards from Ashton Jeanty last week. Las Vegas can score, but its defense has had trouble getting off the field, and that is a bad habit to have against Josh Allen.
Sunday Night Football has the closest line of the week. Green Bay (3-2) is a 1.5-point home favorite over Dallas (2-3) with a total of about 52.5 to 53.5, and the moneyline is basically a coin flip at roughly Packers -120 and Cowboys +100. For anyone just getting started, a spread that small simply means the sportsbooks cannot separate these teams. You can compare lines across books on the Hello Rookie live NFL odds page.
The storyline everyone wanted, Micah Parsons facing his old team, is not happening. Parsons is still recovering from a torn ACL and the Packers did not expect him to play. Green Bay’s defense is thin anyway, with Javon Hargrave out for the season with a torn Achilles, cornerback Benjamin St-Juste out and several others questionable. The Packers’ offense, however, looked great last week, when Jordan Love threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Bears.
Dallas has the firepower to keep up. CeeDee Lamb is third in the NFL in receiving yards and George Pickens is 13th, and the Cowboys can score against anyone. The problem is on defense, where Dallas has allowed the league’s highest opposing passer rating. Offensive tackle Drew Shelton and cornerback Cobie Durant are out, and defensive tackle LT Overton is questionable. With Love coming off a big game at home, I lean Green Bay in a shootout.
Here is where I land on the four games above. As always, bet only what you can afford to lose, and remember these are opinions, not guarantees.
Before you place anything, it is worth shopping for a new-customer offer, and our DraftKings promo code page is a good place to start. Odds move all week, so check the final lines before kickoff and enjoy a big Sunday of football.
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