Sunday Night Football lands at Lambeau Field this week, and the Dallas Cowboys (2-3) and Green Bay Packers (3-2) have a chance to put on a passing show. Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, with the Packers favored by 1.5 points and the total hovering between 52.5 and 53.5.
Both teams rank among the top five in the league in passing yards per game, with Green Bay at 271.0 and Dallas at 269.6. That makes the quarterbacks the best place to look on the prop board. Here are three beginner-friendly QB bets for Cowboys at Packers, built on recent stats and the matchup rather than gut feel.
Jordan Love is coming off his best game of the season, going 25 of 31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-7 rout of the Chicago Bears. Through five games he has thrown for 1,408 yards, which works out to 281.6 per game, with 10 touchdown passes against three interceptions. His average already sits above this week’s line of 274.5, and the Over is priced at -114.
The matchup helps, too. Dallas ranks 21st against the pass and has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt (8.3) and completion rate (72.1 percent) in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a league-high 120.5 passer rating against the Cowboys, even when pressured. Cornerback Cobie Durant has been ruled out, and Porter and Speed are both questionable, so Love should find plenty of soft spots.
The weather should not get in the way either. The forecast calls for a clear night in Green Bay with temperatures around 55 degrees at kickoff and a manageable breeze. If the Cowboys keep pace on the other side, Love will be throwing right into the fourth quarter.
Dak Prescott has 9 touchdown passes against 3 interceptions through five games, along with 1,381 yards (276.2 per game). Last week was a rough one by his standards. He went 24 of 42 for 316 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay, and both picks came off tipped balls. Even in that dud, he still moved the ball plenty.
The Over on 1.5 touchdown passes is priced at -174 at FanDuel, so the market is already leaning heavily toward it. We agree. Dallas is a road underdog, which usually means more throws, and the Cowboys have been one of the league’s best red zone teams, converting 83.3 percent of their trips, second in the NFL. With CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson as targets, Prescott has options everywhere, and the offense sits near the top of the league in EPA and DVOA.
The price is steep, but this is a high-total game with a quarterback who is capable of multiple scores. If Dallas has to chase points in the second half, this prop gets even safer.
Our third pick is a different kind of bet. Love is a pocket passer first, and his rushing numbers this season show it. He has just seven carries and negative-2 rushing yards through five games, so this line asks him to gain more on the ground in one night than he has all year.
The game script points the same way. Green Bay is projected to run the ball on only about 37 percent of its plays this week, the second-lowest rate among all teams, because the Packers have leaned on the pass all season. BetMGM data shows Love has stayed under his rushing yardage prop in 12 of his last 16 games. Some books list a slightly lower number, so shop around and take the best line you can find.
The main risk is a scramble on a broken play that turns into a big gain. Even so, one or two carries rarely get him past 7 yards.
All three bets come back to the same idea: this should be a pass-heavy game with two quarterbacks who are playing well, and one of them has little reason to run. If you are new to props, our betting calculator is a handy way to see what a payout looks like before you commit.
Lines can move before kickoff, so confirm the current odds at your book. To compare prices, our Live NFL Odds page makes it easy.
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