Wild vs Bruins Prediction: Under Looks Right in Boston

Two of the stingiest defenses in hockey meet at TD Garden on Saturday night, and the total just fell a full goal.

Quick take:

• Pick: Under 5.5 goals
• Why: Minnesota allows the fewest goals per game in the league, Boston ranks third, and the market has already moved the number down toward the Under.
• The number to watch: 2.19 goals allowed per game for the Wild, first in the NHL.

The Minnesota Wild (14-3-4) arrive in Boston as the top team in the Central Division and the owners of a 10-game point streak, going 8-0-2 over that stretch. The Boston Bruins (13-5-1) have been one of the best stories of the early season, sitting near the top of the Atlantic with an 8-2-0 mark at home.

This is the second and final regular-season meeting. Minnesota won the first one 4-1 on October 3, but Boston is coming off its worst night of the year, a 5-2 home loss to Montreal on Thursday in which it fell behind 5-0 before waking up.

That loss is why this game is interesting. A flat Bruins team against a road team that has won seven straight away from home is usually a recipe for a big number on the board. The market, though, is leaning the other way.

Wild at Bruins Odds: A Total That Keeps Shrinking

The side is close to a coin flip. Minnesota is a small favorite around -120 on the moneyline with Boston near +100, and the price has barely moved despite most of the tickets and money landing on the Wild. The real action is on the total, which opened at 6.5 and has been bet down to 5.5, with the Over still carrying the heavier juice at roughly -134 to -136. Books are telling you they expect a tight game and still want you to take the Over at a worse price, which is a reason to look at the other side.

Recent Form

Minnesota’s recent run is built on defense and a steady power play, while Boston’s offense has been running hot on finishing more than volume. Here is how both teams look over their recent games, along with their history against each other.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why Two Great Defenses Point to the Under

Start with the raw defensive numbers. Minnesota allows 2.19 goals per game, first in the league, and holds opponents to about 25.8 shots on goal a night. Boston is third at 2.42 goals against. Both clubs sit at the top of the league in team save percentage, with Boston at .916 and Minnesota at .915, so neither goalie group is likely to be rattled early.

Jesper Wallstedt has been the engine for the Wild in net, carrying a goals-against average under 2.00 and a save percentage near .925 for the season. With Filip Gustavsson still on injured reserve with a hip injury, Wallstedt is the goalie Minnesota wants in the crease. For Boston, Jeremy Swayman and Michael DiPietro have both posted save percentages above .910, giving the Bruins two reliable options.

Boston scores 3.68 goals a game on just 27.1 shots, which means a 13.4 percent shooting rate that is very hard to sustain against the league’s best defense.

That is the quiet risk for anyone betting on a shootout. The Bruins rank fifth in scoring, but they get there through conversion, not through piling up shots, and conversion tends to drift back toward the middle against tight opponents. Minnesota’s shot share of 52.9 percent also means Boston will spend a good part of the night defending, which usually helps the Under too.

The Wild’s power play is clicking at about 27 percent, so a couple of Boston penalties could produce a goal or two. Boston’s power play sits at 18 percent, though, and both penalty kills are close to 79 percent. That keeps special teams from tilting the total in either direction.

There are some injury wrinkles. Brock Faber, who has been out since a preseason skull fracture, has told the team he is ready and could make his season debut, which would strengthen Minnesota’s blue line. Joel Eriksson Ek is day-to-day after a hit in Toronto. Boston lists rookie James Hagens on injured reserve.

The trends back this up. Over tickets have cashed in only 38.1 percent of Minnesota’s games and 44.4 percent of Boston’s, and the last meeting in October finished with five total goals, under the posted 6.5.

Anyone looking to back this at a new book can start with a DraftKings promo code and shop the number, since 5.5 versus 6 can change the value of the Under noticeably.

Prediction and Best Bet

Minnesota is the slightly better team on paper, with the stronger shot share and power play, and a seven-game road winning streak is hard to ignore. But this projects as a low-event game between two clubs that defend well and have goalies playing at a high level. Boston’s offense should get a few looks, though not enough to push the total over six.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Minnesota Wild 3, Boston Bruins 2
2. Best Bet: Under 5.5 goals

The line has already dropped a full goal, so there is some risk the value has been squeezed out. If you can find it at 5.5 or better, the Under is the best way to play a game this evenly matched. Check the latest live NHL odds before you lock it in.