3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on November 14

Saturday’s NHL slate is a good one for shots on goal props, and the best part is that you do not need to predict a puck bouncing in off a skate to cash one. You need a player who gets the puck, gets the ice time and fires it at the net. That is exactly what the three players below do, and the books are still pricing them with a little room to spare.

Each of these picks lines up on three things: a steady recent shot volume, a role that keeps the shots coming and a matchup that does not take them away. Lines and odds can move before puck drop, so check your book before you bet.

Roman Kantserov Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-155 at BetMGM)

Kantserov has been one of the few bright spots in a rough season for Chicago. The Blackhawks winger wears No. 80, skates on the top line next to Connor Bedard and has nine goals and three assists this season, while playing close to 19 minutes a night. The Blackhawks come into Saturday’s 3:30 PM ET home game against Winnipeg at 5-13-1, which means they are usually chasing games, and chasing teams shoot a lot.

The numbers back up the over. Kantserov has cleared 1.5 shots in 6 of his last 10 games and averages 1.9 shots over that stretch. The home split is what really stands out: he is averaging 2.22 shots at the United Center and has gone over this number in 6 of 9 home games, compared to just 4 of 9 on the road. Dimers puts the probability at 75.4%, a lot higher than the roughly 61% implied by the -155 price.

The matchup helps too. Winnipeg allows 28.5 shots per game, which ranks 23rd in the league. He had only one shot against Buffalo on Thursday in a 3-2 Chicago win, but his ice time (20:08) was still strong. A short-term dip with the same role is usually a buy-low spot on a volume prop.

Cole Caufield Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165 at BetMGM)

Caufield is the easiest shooter to trust on the board. The Montreal sniper wears No. 13 and has 12 goals on 63 shots in 19 games, a rate of 3.3 shots on goal per game. Over his last 10 he is at 3.1 per game and has gotten at least two shots in 9 of them. A zero against Winnipeg on October 25 is the lone blank in that stretch.

His last few games show a player who is not slowing down. He had 4 shots in Boston on Thursday, 3 in Toronto the game before and a season-high 6 against Utah on November 5. Dimers gives this over a 66.5% chance, and with 3.3 shots a game the line of 2.5 sits below his average, which is where you want a volume prop to sit.

Saturday’s game against Colorado at 7:00 PM ET at the Bell Centre has a lot of scoring potential. Montreal has won 8 of its last 10 and Colorado is allowing 3.2 goals a game over that span. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both left Thursday’s game with lower-body injuries and are day-to-day, so check the lineup news first. Even if Colorado’s stars are out, the Avalanche still play an up-tempo style, and Caufield’s role on the power play (3:25 a night) gives him plenty of chances to hit the over.

Zach Werenski Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-175 at DraftKings)

It is rare for a defenseman to be the best shot-volume play on a slate, but Werenski is not a typical defenseman. He is Columbus’s top blueliner, plays big minutes and averages about 3.4 shots per game this season, the highest rate on either roster in Saturday’s game. Over his last 10 games he is averaging 3.9 shots and has cleared 2.5 in 7 of them, and he has gone over in each of his last 5.

Philadelphia comes to Nationwide Arena at 7:00 PM ET ranked 30th in the league at 24.2 shots on goal per game, while the Blue Jackets are 21st at 26.8. That might sound like a negative for a shot prop, but it really reflects a Flyers team that does not generate much offense and spends a lot of time defending. The more Columbus has the puck, the more Werenski gets to shoot from the point. The Flyers are also middle of the pack against defensemen, allowing 7.5 shots a game to the position.

Dimers has this at 68.9%, and the edge is 5.3% at -175. It is the most expensive of the three prices, but it is also backed by the longest run of consistent results.

Lock These In

All three picks are built on the same idea: pay for shot volume, not luck. Kantserov’s home role, Caufield’s steady shooting and Werenski’s workload all point to the over. Here are the three bets for Saturday:

• Roman Kantserov OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-155 at BetMGM)
• Cole Caufield OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-165 at BetMGM)
• Zach Werenski OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-175 at DraftKings)

Check lineups before puck drop, shop the line at your sportsbook and bet only what you can afford to lose.