Nets vs Grizzlies Prediction: Points Pile Up in Memphis

Memphis hasn’t lost on the road all season, yet it can’t seem to win in front of its own fans, and a 3-8 Brooklyn team is walking into that mess with a hot shooting hand.

Quick take:

• Pick: Over 226.5 total points
• Why: Memphis plays at a 102.7 pace and scores in bunches, while Brooklyn just hung 145 on New Orleans and allows 115.3 a night.
• The number to watch: 230.1 points per game, the combined average of these two teams.

The Memphis Grizzlies (8-4) host the Brooklyn Nets (3-8) on Saturday night at FedExForum, tipping at 8:00 PM ET. On paper this looks like a mismatch. Memphis sits sixth in the West and owns a perfect 6-0 road record, but it has dropped four straight at home, where it is just 2-4. Brooklyn is 13th in the East and 2-5 away from home.

That home-and-road split is the strangest thing about this game. The Grizzlies have looked like a different team in other buildings, and a Brooklyn squad that just rediscovered its three-point stroke could make them pay for another sloppy night in front of the home crowd.

Can Memphis Cover a 5.5-Point Spread Against Brooklyn?

The market has Memphis as a 5.5-point favorite, with the Grizzlies around -215 on the moneyline and the Nets around +180. The total sits at 226.5 at most books, with a couple of shops hanging 225.5 or 224.5. Brooklyn has been surprisingly kind to bettors against the number, going 7-4 against the spread despite its record, while Memphis is 8-4 against the spread and has covered just once in three chances as a favorite of 5.5 or more. The moneyline price implies roughly a 68 percent win probability for Memphis. Anyone shopping those numbers can start with a DraftKings promo code before locking in a side.

Recent Form

Memphis opened the year with six straight wins and has gone 6-4 over its last ten, but the home losses keep stacking up, including a 123-118 defeat to Denver in which the Grizzlies trailed by as many as 18. Brooklyn is 3-7 over its last ten and just rode a wild swing from a 93-130 loss at Dallas to a 145-111 win at New Orleans.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Pace Favors the Over in Memphis

Start with how Memphis plays. The Grizzlies run at a 102.7 pace with a 115.8 offensive rating and a 108.0 defensive rating, a net rating of +7.8 that backs up the 8-4 record. Ty Jerome is the engine, averaging 25.4 points, 5.2 assists and 2.5 threes while shooting 48.5 percent from the field and 90.2 percent at the line. Rookie Cameron Boozer adds 15.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists, and Cedric Coward (12.7 points, 8.5 rebounds) and Jaylen Wells (11.9 points, 39.4 percent from three) round out a balanced starting group. Memphis games have averaged 232.2 total points this season, which is 5.7 more than tonight’s number.

Brooklyn brings plenty of scoring of its own, even if the record doesn’t show it. Michael Porter Jr. leads the team at 21.5 points and 7.5 rebounds while hitting 3.5 threes per game at a 37.5 percent clip, and Julius Randle gives the Nets a second option who can create his own shot. Egor Demin returned from a six-game absence against the Pelicans and scored 22 points, hitting four of his six three-point attempts. As a team, Brooklyn scores 110.2 points per game and allows 115.3, which is the kind of gap that leaves a lot of room for the other team’s offense to breathe.

Brooklyn shot 57 percent and went 20-for-41 from three in its last win, and Memphis allowed 123 points to Denver at home this week.

The Grizzlies are also thin up front. Zach Edey (ankle), Quinten Post (concussion protocol), Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) and Richie Saunders (knee) are all listed as out, which strips Memphis of rim protection and bench depth. Edey blocks 1.3 shots a night in his minutes, and without him Brooklyn’s drivers should find more room to work inside.

On the other side, Mikel Brown Jr. is questionable with an illness and Nolan Traore is probable with a sore right calf, so the Nets guard rotation could be short on bodies.

Neither team is built to grind this one out.

The two clubs combine for 230.1 points per game, 3.6 more than the posted total. Brooklyn is also coming off a game where nine different players made at least one three, which is the type of spacing that tends to keep a scoreboard moving. Memphis has gone over 226.5 in six of its 12 games, and the Nets have cleared it in five of 11, so the line is not a gift, but the matchup of pace against a leaky defense tilts toward points.

Prediction and Best Bet

Memphis should find the form that made it 6-0 away from home and win comfortably, but the real value is in the points. Both teams can score, and neither is playing much defense right now. Expect Memphis to push the pace and Brooklyn to keep firing from deep, which carries this one past the posted number.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies 121, Brooklyn Nets 108
2. Best Bet: Over 226.5

With both offenses humming and two thin defensive rotations, the Over is a safer way into this game than laying 5.5 with a home team that keeps losing in front of its own fans.