3 NFL Passing Props to Back This Sunday: Allen, Love and Stroud

Sunday’s NFL slate has plenty of good matchups, but one of the cleanest ways to attack it is also one of the simplest: quarterback passing yards. A passing yards prop is just a number set by the sportsbook. You decide whether the quarterback will throw for more (over) or fewer (under) yards than that number. It is easy to understand, which makes it a great starting point for newer bettors.

We are backing three quarterbacks to go over their lines: Josh Allen in Buffalo’s trip to the Jets, Jordan Love at home against the Vikings, and C.J. Stroud on the road in Cleveland. Two of those quarterbacks face strong pass defenses, so we will be upfront about the risk and explain why we still like each over. Check your book for the latest numbers, because lines can move before kickoff.

Josh Allen Over 235.5 Passing Yards at the Jets

Allen has thrown for 2,027 yards this season, an average of 253.4 per game, which clears this line by about 18 yards. His last five games went 253, 210, 255, 289 and 234. That tells you the line is fair but beatable: he lands right around this number most weeks, so a little extra volume is all it takes to cash.

The Jets are 2-7 and have allowed 33.7 points per game over their last three. Buffalo is a 7.5-point favorite with a total around 50.5, which points to a high-scoring game. The Jets rank among the stingier teams in raw passing yards allowed, at roughly 198 per game, but part of that is because opponents have not always needed to throw. When the points are flowing, the passing yards tend to follow.

The risk is real. Some projection models expect Allen to attempt only about 31 passes, since Buffalo can lean on its running game once it has a lead. We are betting a divisional game against a desperate home team stays competitive long enough for Allen to get to 236. The over is posted at 234.5 to 235.5 at the major books, at roughly minus-114.

Jordan Love Over 251.5 Passing Yards vs. the Vikings

This is the boldest pick on the card, and we want to be honest about why. Minnesota allows just 161.1 passing yards per game, second in the NFL, and leads the league in touchdown passes allowed. Only one opposing quarterback has reached 300 yards against the Vikings this season.

So why take the over? Because Love is playing as well as anyone right now. He is averaging 290.9 yards per game and has thrown for at least 270 yards in five straight games, including 372 yards and three touchdowns against New England last Sunday. He has topped his passing yards total in six of nine games, and he has thrown a touchdown pass in every game this year. In his last five outings he attempted between 29 and 45 passes, so the volume is there.

Green Bay passes on roughly 63 percent of its offensive plays, and with a three-point spread and a total of 42, this looks like a tight game where the Packers will keep throwing into the fourth quarter. A tough defense makes every throw harder, but it does not stop a quarterback from throwing. Love only needs to come in about 40 yards under his season average to cash this ticket. Know that this pick carries more variance than the other two.

C.J. Stroud Over 244.5 Passing Yards at the Browns

Stroud is averaging 281.4 passing yards per game, with 2,251 yards, a 64.2 percent completion rate, 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has gone over his passing total in six of eight games, and he comes off a 384-yard, five-touchdown game against the Chargers. His 8.0 yards per attempt rank sixth in the NFL, so his production is not just empty checkdowns.

The Browns deserve respect. They allow 201 passing yards per game, sixth-best in the league, and are working on the longest active streak in the NFL without allowing a 300-yard passer, at 54 games. The good news is that this line does not need 300. At 244.5, Stroud has to stay near his usual level and does not even need to reach his season average.

The setup helps Houston. The Texans are 4.5-point favorites, and Cleveland’s offense has struggled, so Houston should be playing with the lead and keep attacking. Houston also protects its quarterback well, allowing only about two sacks per game according to the Covers staff. The total of 40 is low, which is why the number is not higher. Check the Cleveland weather before kickoff, since outdoor conditions can limit a passing game.

Lock These In

The thread connecting these picks is quarterback form and volume. Allen gets a high-total divisional game, Love has been throwing for 270-plus yards for five straight weeks, and Stroud has been one of the most efficient passers in the league. Here are the three plays, with the lines as we have them:

• Josh Allen OVER 235.5 passing yards (about -114)
• Jordan Love OVER 251.5 passing yards (about -104 to -108)
• C.J. Stroud OVER 244.5 passing yards (about -114)

Two of these quarterbacks face top-six pass defenses, so size your bets sensibly and shop for the best number. Passing props reward patience, and one long drive can make the difference.