Devils vs Capitals Prediction: Hellebuyck Backs the Under

The Devils beat Washington by three on Thursday, and now they get to do it again in a building where the Capitals hold a 130-75-27 all-time edge in this series.

Quick take:

• Pick: Under 6.5 goals
• Why: Connor Hellebuyck is confirmed in net for New Jersey, and the Devils have the best shot-suppression profile in this matchup.
• The number to watch: 24.8 shots allowed per game by New Jersey

New Jersey wraps up a home-and-home with Washington on Saturday at Capital One Arena, puck drop 7:00 p.m. ET. The Devils (14-6-0) sit second in the Metropolitan Division and have won six of their past seven. The Capitals (10-7-0) are fourth in the Metro and had gone 7-3-0 in their previous 10 before Thursday’s 5-2 loss in Newark.

The Capitals actually led 2-1 early in the second period on Thursday. Then three call-ups from Utica, Lenni Hameenaho, Vladislav Kolyachonok and Stefan Noesen, all found the net as New Jersey scored the final four goals of the night.

Devils Open as Slim Road Favorites in the Rematch

The market sees this one as close to a coin flip with a slight lean toward the visitors. New Jersey is around -116 on the moneyline with Washington near -103, so oddsmakers barely separate the teams despite the gap in the standings. The total is 6.5 goals at most books, and the puck line is New Jersey -1.5 at plus money, with the Devils laying 1.5 goals priced anywhere from roughly +186 to +223 depending on the book.

Recent Form

Between the standings, the first meeting on Thursday and an October result that went the other way, there is plenty of data to sort through before Saturday’s puck drop.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Goalie Matchup Tilts Toward the Under

Hellebuyck is the story. The Devils acquired him from Winnipeg last month, and he is 6-0-0 since the trade with a .916 save percentage and a 1.97 goals-against average on the season. Reuters lists him as Saturday’s confirmed starter. He stopped 26 of 28 shots Thursday, and in 16 career games against Washington he is 9-5-2 with a .923 save percentage and a 2.23 GAA. Coach Sheldon Keefe said he wanted Hellebuyck in net for both games of the home-and-home.

Across the ice, Logan Thompson has been the opposite. The Capitals goalie is carrying a save percentage in the .889 to .891 range this season, well below his career .911, and he stopped 24 of 28 on Thursday. That is the one soft spot in this matchup, and it is why the total is not lower than 6.5.

New Jersey takes 33.7 shots per game and allows only 24.8, a gap of nearly nine shots every night.

That shot margin matters for the Under. The Devils spend most of their time in the offensive zone and limit what Washington can create. The Capitals take 27.8 shots and allow 27.7, so they are an even team on volume, and they average 3.53 goals a game. New Jersey scores 3.67 on those 33.7 shots and allows 2.85 per game, which is the best defensive number of the two clubs.

The injury lists also take some pace off the game. Brett Pesce is day to day with an illness, and Johnathan Kovacevic went on injured reserve Friday with an ankle injury, so the Devils recalled Anton Silaev for his first NHL call-up. Washington is without defensemen Rasmus Sandin (knee) and Vincent Desharnais (abdomen). Both blue lines are thin, but New Jersey’s goalie is the one with the proven track record.

Special teams are worth a look for anyone considering a total. Washington’s power play converts at 20.0 percent, while the Devils’ penalty kill is only stopping 67.6 percent of attempts. Evan Rodrigues opened the scoring Thursday with a power-play goal and was named first star, and Ryan Leonard answered with Washington’s only power-play goal. If this game turns into a parade to the penalty box, the Over has a path, so discipline is the main risk to this pick.

Jack Hughes leads New Jersey with 10 goals and 27 points, while Tuch leads Washington with 11 goals and Strome with 15 points. Those are the players who can break a tight game open. If you are betting NHL totals, a DraftKings promo code offer is a good way to get started, and you can compare prices on our live NHL odds page before you lock anything in.

Prediction and Best Bet

Washington will fight at home, and Thursday’s lead shows they can score on this team. But the Devils have the better goalie, the better shot profile and the stronger recent form, and I expect a tighter, lower-scoring game than the 7 goals we saw Thursday. New Jersey grinds out a one-goal win.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Devils 3, Capitals 2
2. Best Bet: Under 6.5 total goals

With Hellebuyck confirmed and a 6.5 total that already prices in Thompson’s struggles, Under 6.5 is the cleanest way to back New Jersey’s goaltending edge without laying a price on the moneyline.