Raptors vs 76ers Prediction: Take the Points in Philly

Philadelphia is a double-digit favorite against a Toronto team that has lost two straight, but the 76ers have not been blowing anybody out lately, and both of their stars are listed as questionable.

Quick take:

• Pick: Raptors +10.5
• Why: Ten and a half points is a lot for a Philadelphia team that is outscoring opponents by about three a night and has two key players on the injury report.
• The number to watch: 111.0 points per game for the 76ers, against 107.9 allowed.

The Toronto Raptors (5-6) visit the Philadelphia 76ers (9-3) on Thursday, November 12, at Xfinity Mobile Arena, with tip-off set for 7:00 PM ET. It is the first meeting of the season between two Atlantic Division teams who are heading in opposite directions, at least on paper.

Philadelphia tumbled out of first place in the East on Tuesday, when the Boston Celtics beat them 123-101 behind 36 points from Paul George against his old team. Toronto fell 98-93 at home to those same Celtics on Wednesday. Neither team is arriving in great shape, and that matters when the spread is this big.

What the Market Thinks of Raptors vs 76ers

The 76ers are 10.5-point favorites at most books, and the game total is sitting between 220.5 and 222.5 depending on the shop. On the moneyline, Philadelphia is priced around -430 to -460, while a Toronto win pays roughly +340 to +360. That moneyline implies something close to an 80 percent win probability for the home side, which is steep for a team that just dropped a 22-point game at home. Anyone tracking live NBA odds or shopping the number alongside a DraftKings promo code offer or other books will find the spread holds at 10.5 almost everywhere.

Recent Form

Here is how both teams have looked lately, along with their head-to-head history.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Philadelphia’s Star Questions Meet a Short-Handed Toronto Roster

The biggest swing factor is who actually suits up. Joel Embiid is questionable with right foot plantar fascia injury management, and LeBron James is questionable with low back and sciatica management. This game is not the second night of a back-to-back, so any absence would be a precaution rather than a schedule rest. Adem Bona (cervical spine sprain) and Dominick Barlow (low back stress reaction) are out, and Ariel Hukporti is done for the season with a torn right Achilles.

If the stars sit, the offense runs through Tyrese Maxey, who is averaging 26.7 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists while shooting 49.1 percent from the field. Jaylen Brown and VJ Edgecombe would see more usage as well. That is plenty of firepower, but it is also a thinner rotation than the one that has the Sixers at 9-3.

Philadelphia is scoring 111.0 points per game and allowing 107.9, a margin of about three points a night, not ten.

Toronto has its own problems. Kawhi Leonard is out for at least another week with knee management, Nate Bittle is out with a right foot fracture, and Scottie Barnes (left groin) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (illness) are both questionable. Barnes was averaging 23.5 points over his first eight games, so losing him would hurt, and it would leave Immanuel Quickley (17.4 points per game, 40.9 percent from the field) as the lead option. Quickley returned from a hamstring issue on Wednesday and scored 11 on 3-of-14 shooting against Boston.

The bright spot has been forward Collin Murray-Boyles, who is averaging 10.7 points and 5.0 rebounds on 50.7 percent shooting in about 22 minutes a game. Jakob Poeltl adds 6.5 rebounds a night and shoots 64.6 percent, which gives Toronto a steady interior presence even without its top names.

The Raptors can also score, putting up 121 at Milwaukee and 125 at both the Clippers and the Lakers. Their problem has been defense and consistency, not the ability to put the ball in the basket.

Totals bettors have something to chew on too. Toronto is 0-3 against the over-under this season by one tracker’s count, meaning its games have tended to land under the number, and a Philadelphia team without its centerpieces would likely slow things down further. That is part of why the side feels like a safer angle than the 221-ish total, and anyone eyeing futures can check the NBA championship odds to see where Philadelphia sits.

Prediction and Best Bet

Philadelphia should win, because it is at home, it is the deeper team when healthy, and Toronto is missing several rotation players. But a double-digit cover asks a lot from a Sixers team that has played several tight games this season, including a 98-93 win over the Knicks and a 109-104 win in Charlotte, and that is coming off a 22-point loss with two questionable stars. The Raptors keep games in single digits more often than the line suggests.

The pick:

1. Prediction: 76ers 113, Raptors 105
2. Best Bet: Raptors +10.5

Take the points. Even a Philadelphia win by eight or nine, which is close to my projection, cashes the Toronto side, and any late scratch of Embiid or James only helps that number.