Hornets vs Suns Prediction: Slow Pace Favors the Under

The league’s lowest-scoring offense walks into Phoenix without its best scorer, and the Suns’ defense is not good enough to turn this into a blowout.

Quick take:

• Pick: Under 213.5 total points
• Why: Charlotte plays at the second-slowest pace in the league and is missing three key rotation players, which caps how many possessions and points this game can produce.
• The number to watch: 98.8 points per game, the lowest average in the NBA, from a Hornets team that has gone over the total in only 4 of 11 games.

The Charlotte Hornets (4-7) visit the Phoenix Suns (4-6) on Thursday, November 12, at Mortgage Matchup Center, with tip-off set for 9:00 PM ET. Charlotte is coming off a 124-112 home win over Cleveland that snapped a six-game losing streak, but it has dropped three straight on the road and sits just 1-3 away from home.

Phoenix is in the middle of a seven-game homestand and is 4-3 at home. The Suns just routed the Clippers 133-110 on Tuesday, hitting 22 of 43 from three-point range and resting all five starters in the fourth quarter. Both teams had Wednesday off, so neither is on a back-to-back.

Hornets vs Suns Odds: A Big Spread for a Slow Game

Phoenix is a 6.5 to 7.5 point favorite depending on the book. DraftKings numbers carried by ESPN opened with the Suns at -7.5 and the total at 213.5, and the moneyline has Charlotte around +190 to +205 and Phoenix near -230 to -245. That implies the market gives the Suns roughly a 70 percent chance to win outright. Totals are bouncing between 213.5 and 214.5 across the market, so shop for the best number on the live NBA odds before betting. If you are new to this, a DraftKings promo code is an easy way to start with a little extra cushion.

Recent Form

Charlotte is 3-7 over its last 10 and Phoenix is 4-6, so neither team is arriving on a roll. The data below shows how each side has played lately, along with the recent history between the two clubs.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Under Has a Real Case

Start with the Hornets’ offense, because it is the whole story. Charlotte scores 98.8 points per game, which ranks 30th in the league, and its offensive rating of about 100 points per 100 possessions is also last or close to it depending on the source. It plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, roughly 98 possessions per 48 minutes, which ranks 29th. A slow team with a bad offense does not usually help a game climb past 214.

The injury report makes it worse. Brandon Miller, who leads the team at 20.6 points per game, is out with a groin issue. Kon Knueppel is out with a hamstring strain, and veteran guard Dennis Schroder is out with a hamstring strain as well. Coby White has played only four games and is averaging 7.0 points on 23.7 percent shooting in about 18 minutes, so he is still working his way back. That leaves Naz Reid at 17.4 points and 8.5 rebounds and Grayson Allen at 15.3 points on 46.9 percent from three to carry most of the scoring load.

Charlotte has gone over the total in just 4 of its 11 games this season, while its defense has allowed only 110.4 points per game, 10th best in the league.

Phoenix is a different kind of team. Devin Booker is averaging 25.1 points and 4.8 assists on 48.3 percent shooting, with Miles Bridges adding 15.0 points and 7.4 rebounds and Dillon Brooks at 14.9. The Suns score 112.8 points a game, which is middle of the pack, but they also allow 118.1, ranking 24th. That defense is why this is not a lock for the Under: Phoenix games have gone over the total six times in 11 chances at one book, and the Hornets can get hot from deep in a hurry.

That is exactly what happened against Cleveland, when Charlotte went 23 of 46 from three-point range after entering the game second to last in the league in three-point percentage. Allen scored 27 and Reid had 25 points and 13 rebounds in that win. It was the kind of shooting night that rarely repeats.

One storyline worth noting: Allen played for Phoenix last season and was traded to Charlotte in July in the deal that sent Bridges to the Suns, so he has a personal stake in this one.

Prediction and Best Bet

Phoenix should win this game at home against a banged-up opponent. The Suns have the best player on the floor in Booker, a healthier rotation and a defense that does not need to be great to handle a team scoring 98.8 points a game. But laying 6.5 or more is a harder sell, since the Suns have not covered a spread that large yet this season and their defense gives up plenty of points.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Suns 110, Hornets 100
2. Best Bet: Under 213.5 total points

A 110-100 final lands at 210 combined and keeps this on the low side of the number. With Charlotte’s pace, its injuries and its scoring problems, the Under is the cleaner bet.