Capitals vs Devils Prediction: Over Looks Live in Newark

The league’s 30th-ranked penalty kill meets a Washington team that scores 3.5 goals a night, and that is where this Thursday game in Newark could be decided.

Quick take:

• Pick: Over 6 goals
• Why: New Jersey’s penalty kill is stopping only 65.9% of power plays, and both offenses are scoring at a top-10 pace.
• The number to watch: 65.9%, the Devils’ penalty kill rate, 30th in the NHL.

The Washington Capitals (10-6-0) visit the New Jersey Devils (13-6-0) at Prudential Center on Thursday, November 12, with puck drop at 7:00 p.m. ET. It is the first half of a home-and-home between two Metropolitan Division rivals, and the teams meet again in Washington on Saturday night.

The Devils arrive a little bruised after a 4-2 loss in Winnipeg on Tuesday ended a five-game winning streak. Washington is on a two-game run of its own, thanks to a 3-2 overtime win in Ottawa that same night. Both clubs are producing plenty of offense, and neither has been airtight in its own end.

What the Market Thinks About Capitals vs Devils

New Jersey is the moneyline favorite at roughly -145, with Washington sitting around +135 at most books. The puck line has the Devils at -1.5 on the plus side of even money and the Capitals at +1.5 with a heavy price near -190. The total is hovering between 6 and 6.5 goals depending on the shop, which tells you the market sees a game with plenty of chances at both ends.

Recent Form

Here is how both teams have looked lately, along with their history against each other. New Jersey is 8-2-0 over its last ten, while Washington is 7-3-0.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Special Teams and Goaltending Tilt Toward Goals

Start with the penalty kill, because it is the most lopsided number on the board. New Jersey has stopped just 65.9% of opposing power plays this season, which ranks 30th in the league. Washington’s power play is only 18.2%, which ranks 25th, so this is not a case of an elite unit meeting a weak one. Still, every extra power play against this Devils group is a real scoring chance, and if New Jersey takes penalties, the Over gets a boost. The Devils’ own power play sits at 18.0%, and Washington’s penalty kill, at 77.8%, is closer to the middle of the pack. For a wider view of how these numbers move prices, check the live NHL odds page.

In goal, Connor Hellebuyck is the headline. New Jersey acquired him from Winnipeg on October 23, and he is 5-0-0 with a .913 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average. Logan Thompson is projected for Washington at 7-4-0 with a .891 save percentage and a 3.09 GAA, and that save percentage ranks 28th in the league. He was strong against Ottawa, stopping 23 shots, but two starts earlier he was pulled early in the second period of a 6-5 loss to Dallas.

Washington is 9-2-0 this season when it scores at least three goals, and it is averaging 3.5 a game.

The Capitals’ offense is the other half of the story. Alex Tuch leads the club with 11 goals, Dylan Strome has 15 points, and 20-year-old defenseman Cole Hutson has quietly put together five goals and six assists in 16 games. Hutson set up the tying goal in Ottawa and then scored the overtime winner 1:14 into the extra period, which made him the third-youngest Capital to score an overtime goal. He is playing more than 19 minutes a night and has points in four of his last five games.

New Jersey has plenty of firepower too. Jack Hughes leads the Devils with 26 points, including 17 assists, and has 10 points over his last five games. The Devils also average about 33 shots per game, second in the NHL, while allowing just 24.8, which ranks third. That territorial edge is why they are favored, even though their goals-against numbers are not elite.

The Devils will be without Anthony Mantha, who is on long-term injured reserve with a throat injury, and Johnathan Kovacevic is day to day. Washington is missing defensemen Rasmus Sandin and Vincent Desharnais, which thins out a back end that already allows 3.31 goals a game.

Washington won the first meeting 4-2 at home last month, so the Capitals know they can beat this team.

Prediction and Best Bet

New Jersey has the better goalie on paper, the better shot profile and home ice, so the Devils deserve to be favored. But a 65.9% penalty kill against a team that averages 3.5 goals a game, plus a Washington goalie who has struggled with consistency and a banged-up blue line, points toward a game that gets past six. Both teams are in the top ten in scoring, and the Devils’ shot volume should produce enough goals to cash an Over even if Hellebuyck is sharp.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Devils 4, Capitals 3
2. Best Bet: Over 6 goals

If you want to back it, check the current DraftKings promo code offer before you place the bet, and shop the total between 6 and 6.5, since the half-goal matters.