Jets vs Stars Prediction: Dallas Defense Wins a Tight One

Winnipeg has won four straight and still hasn’t solved the one thing Dallas does better than anyone in the Central: keeping games tight and winning them in the final minutes.

Quick take:

• Pick: Under 5.5 goals
• Why: Dallas allows just 2.29 goals per game, third-fewest in the league, and four of its last five meetings with Winnipeg were decided by a single goal.
• The number to watch: The Stars are 9-0-0 when they score three or more goals.

The Winnipeg Jets (8-8-3) visit the Dallas Stars (10-5-2) on Thursday night at American Airlines Center, with puck drop set for 8:00 PM ET. It is the second meeting of the season between two Central Division teams that are heading in opposite directions in the standings but not always on the scoreboard.

Dallas won the first one 3-2 in overtime on October 22, with Roope Hintz scoring twice. That game was a snapshot of this rivalry: the Stars controlled the shot count (38 to 19), the Jets hung around, and the result came down to one extra period.

Stars Are Favored, but the Price Is Steep

The market has Dallas as a clear favorite. Consensus lines put the Stars between -160 and -185 on the moneyline and the Jets between +153 and +156, with the puck line at Stars -1.5 (plus money) and Jets +1.5 (roughly -167). The total is set at 5.5 goals, and the over is the slightly more expensive side at several books. Laying close to a 65 percent break-even price on the Stars moneyline leaves little room for error against a team that has pushed Dallas to the edge in recent meetings, which is why the total is the more interesting number. If you want to shop these lines, our DraftKings promo code page walks through the current new-user offer, and our live NHL odds page tracks how these numbers move.

Recent Form

Winnipeg arrives on a four-game winning streak after a miserable October, while Dallas has won seven of its last ten. The data below shows how each team has actually performed lately, along with every meeting on record.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Under Has the Edge in Dallas

Start with goaltending. Jake Oettinger is 9-3-1 with a 1.99 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage, and Dallas as a team gives up only 2.29 goals per game. Stuart Skinner, who took over as Winnipeg’s starter after Connor Hellebuyck was traded to New Jersey, is 6-4-3 with a 3.26 GAA and an .883 save percentage. Those numbers favor Dallas in net, but they also describe a Jets team that has leaked goals all season, allowing 3.42 per game.

That is the tension in this total. Winnipeg’s games have reached six goals 12 times in 19 outings, while Dallas has done it just five times in 17. The two trends pull in opposite directions, and when they meet in Dallas, the home team’s profile tends to win out. Over the last ten games the Stars are giving up 2.6 goals per game while the Jets are surrendering 3.7, but Winnipeg’s four-game run has come against Vancouver, New Jersey, Tampa Bay and Montreal, and Dallas is a different kind of test.

Dallas has won five straight against Winnipeg, and four of those five were one-goal games.

Dallas will be without Miro Heiskanen, who is out with an upper-body injury, along with Matt Duchene, Oskar Back and Kyle Capobianco. Heiskanen has three goals and eight assists in 15 games, and his absence removes the Stars’ best puck-moving defenseman, though Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell have absorbed the minutes. Winnipeg is missing Nick Bjugstad and Vladislav Namestnikov, depth forwards who do not change the matchup much.

Cole Perfetti has a spot on Winnipeg’s top power-play unit alongside Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi and Josh Morrissey, and Connor leads the Jets with 15 goals. Winnipeg’s power play ranks 11th at 23.7 percent, but its penalty kill is 23rd at 73.7 percent, so special teams are where this game could get loose. Dallas counters with Mikko Rantanen, who has seven goals and seven assists over his last ten games, plus Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson.

The Jets have been better lately. Dallas is the harder opponent.

Prediction and Best Bet

Dallas finds a way to win, as it has in each of the last five meetings, and does it by a single goal again. The Stars score enough to win, the Jets score enough to stay close, and neither side blows this open against a goalie playing as well as Oettinger. A 3-2 final lands under the 5.5 number, and the Stars’ defensive profile makes the under the cleaner side than laying a heavy moneyline price.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Stars 3, Jets 2
2. Best Bet: Under 5.5 goals

Dallas is 9-0-0 when it scores three or more, which tells you the Stars win by scoring just enough, not by running up the score. That is a profile that favors the under.