Pistons vs. Nets Prediction: Detroit’s Defense Faces Winless Brooklyn at Barclays Center

The league’s last winless team gets a home game against its best defense, and Brooklyn has already been on the wrong end of one overtime heartbreaker this week.

Quick take:

• Pick: Detroit Pistons -7.5
• Why: Detroit allows 103.4 points per game (second in the NBA) while Brooklyn gives up 124.0 (27th), and that gap is bigger than the spread.
• The number to watch: 124.0 points allowed per game by the Nets

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) visit the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Friday, October 30 at Barclays Center, with tip-off set for 7:30 p.m. ET in an NBA Cup group-play game. Detroit sits first in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is 15th and has opened 0-4 in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history.

The Pistons’ only loss came at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks, and they answered it the next night with a 97-89 win over Charlotte. The Nets, meanwhile, dropped a 125-124 overtime decision in Boston on Tuesday when Jayson Tatum hit a 17-footer at the buzzer. That is a rough way to lose, but a loss all the same, and the Nets are still searching for their first win.

Pistons Are Roughly Touchdown-Sized Favorites in Brooklyn

Detroit is a 7.5-point road favorite, with the moneyline sitting near -295 on the Pistons and +240 on the Nets. The total is hovering around 222.5. That is a big number for a road team in an early-season game, but it reflects how lopsided the two defenses have been through the first week. Detroit is also 4-1 against the spread, so the market has been slow to catch up to what this team is doing. If you are new to reading lines like these, our live NBA odds page shows how the numbers move through the day.

Recent Form

The form and head-to-head data below show a Detroit team that has controlled most of its games and a Brooklyn team that has stayed close but not finished.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Detroit’s Defense Against Brooklyn’s Shot-Making

The Pistons have not allowed more than 113 points in a game this season, and they block 7.2 shots per game, second in the NBA. Brooklyn averages 4.0 blocks and shoots 42.9 percent from the field, 26th in the league. Michael Porter Jr. is the Nets’ top scorer at 22.8 points per game on 47.1 percent shooting, and Julius Randle adds 22.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists. Those two combined for 51 points against Boston, and Brooklyn still lost.

Cade Cunningham is the engine for Detroit at 22.6 points and 7.8 assists per game, and he had 30 points on 10-of-22 shooting against Charlotte on Wednesday. Paul Reed leads the team with 7.6 rebounds per game, and with Jalen Duren out with a hamstring injury, that rebounding load matters. Isaiah Joe is questionable with a hip issue, which would thin out Detroit’s perimeter depth if he cannot go.

On the Brooklyn side, Egor Demin is out with a leg injury. Rookie Mikel Brown Jr. hit the tying three with a second left against Boston and finished with 17 points and five assists, so the Nets have shown some life in the backcourt. Still, the roster is short on the kind of rim protection and perimeter defense that slows down a team like Detroit.

Detroit has won six of the last seven meetings with Brooklyn, including a 138-100 rout on March 10.

That history is hard to ignore. The Pistons won the season series 3-1 last year with two of those wins in Brooklyn, and the margins in the recent matchups have been well above this spread.

The Nets’ problem is that they keep games close without having the defense to close them. They are giving up 124.0 points per game, and Detroit’s offense, which scores 109.8 per game (24th), does not need to be great to take advantage of that. It just needs to be steady. Brooklyn also turns the ball over 17.5 times per game (26th), which feeds a Pistons team that thrives on stops and transition chances. Detroit’s own turnover rate is 15.6 per game, so the Pistons are not immune to sloppiness, but the gap in defensive efficiency covers a lot of that.

There is a reasonable case for the Nets on the other side. They have played Boston to a one-point overtime game on the road, the effort is clearly there, and a seven-and-a-half-point spread leaves room for a backdoor cover if Porter and Randle both get hot. That said, close losses are still losses, and the underlying numbers say Brooklyn has been outplayed more than its scoreboard margins suggest. If you are planning to bet this one in New York, our New York sports betting guide covers where you can play.

Prediction and Best Bet

Detroit has the better defense, the better record, the best player on the floor in Cunningham, and a long run of success in this series. Brooklyn’s best hope is that Porter and Randle both shoot well and the Pistons cool off from three, but the Nets have not shown they can string together stops. Expect Detroit to build a lead in the second half and hold it.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Detroit Pistons 114, Brooklyn Nets 104
2. Best Bet: Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Pistons are 4-1 against the spread, and the gap between these two defenses is wider than 7.5 points, so lay the number.