College Football Week 9 Preview: Miami at UNC, Ohio State at USC, Georgia vs. Florida

Halloween weekend brings a full Saturday of college football, and it arrives in the middle of one of the wildest stretches of the season. Ten top-10 teams have lost in the last three weeks, so no ranking feels safe. If you are new to college football or just want a clean rundown of what matters, here is a plain-English look at the three games that could shape the playoff picture, plus a few others worth keeping on in the background.

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 17 Florida: The Rivalry Moves Indoors

The Bulldogs and Gators are meeting somewhere other than Jacksonville for the first time since 1995. With EverBank Stadium under renovation, the game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Georgia is a 12.5-point favorite with the total sitting around 56, and the moneyline is roughly Georgia -521 and Florida +390. In plain terms, oddsmakers expect Georgia to win, but a 12.5-point spread is a lot to ask against a team that has already beaten two top-10 opponents.

Georgia is 6-1 and comes off a bye week following a stunning home loss to Auburn, where the Bulldogs gave up 192 rushing yards. Florida is 5-2 under first-year coach Jon Sumrall, whose Gators have beaten both Ole Miss and Texas this season. The big question for Florida is quarterback. Aaron Philo is questionable with a shoulder injury, and sophomore Tramell Jones Jr. played well in the win at Texas, throwing for two touchdowns with no interceptions. Sumrall has said he will not name a starter ahead of time. Running back Jadan Baugh leads the SEC with 13 rushing touchdowns, so expect Florida to lean on the ground game against a Georgia run defense that has looked shaky lately.

The stakes are real. Georgia has not lost two regular-season games in a row since Kirby Smart’s first season in 2015, and the Bulldogs have won five straight in this series. Florida has a long road to the playoff, but an upset would change that quickly.

No. 2 Ohio State at USC: A First-Ever Big Ten Meeting With a Quarterback Question

Ohio State heads to the Los Angeles Coliseum for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff in the first Big Ten game ever between these two programs. The Buckeyes are 6-1 and favored by 6.5 points with a total of 51.5, with Ohio State’s moneyline around -250. That is a smaller cushion than you might expect for the No. 2 team in the country, and the reason is simple: starting quarterback Julian Sayin is out after injuring his arm in the 19-15 win at Indiana on Oct. 17, and coach Ryan Day has said he is likely done for the season.

Day has declined to name a replacement, saying both freshman Luke Fahey and redshirt freshman Tavien St. Clair will be ready. That uncertainty is the main storyline. USC is 6-2 and desperate, coming off a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin, and it brings the nation’s 10th-ranked passing attack into a home game. Ohio State is coming off an open week, which gave Day extra time to prepare whichever quarterback plays.

For casual fans, this is the game to watch for a possible upset. If the Buckeyes lean on their defense and run game, they should be able to cover. If USC gets pressure on a young quarterback in the Coliseum, this one could get tight late.

No. 1 Miami at North Carolina: Can Belichick Stun the Top Team?

The nation’s top-ranked team is unbeaten at 7-0 and fresh off a 52-23 win over Pitt, but a trip to Chapel Hill is not as easy as it looks on paper. Miami is a 14-point favorite, with the total around 53, and the moneyline sits near -630. North Carolina is 4-3 under Bill Belichick, and all three of its losses have been close: an 11-point defeat to Notre Dame, a one-score loss to Clemson, and a 31-30 overtime loss to Syracuse. The Tar Heels have also won five straight against Miami, which has not beaten them since 2018.

UNC has never beaten the No. 1 team in the country, going 0-11 in those games, and Miami coach Mario Cristobal has said he expects a tremendous challenge. The Tar Heels rank among the better scoring defenses nationally, allowing about 21 points per game, so this should be tougher than a typical big spread suggests. With 14 points on the line, the question is whether Miami wins comfortably or just wins.

Other Games Worth Keeping On

The noon window has a few useful games. No. 5 Notre Dame plays Navy at Gillette Stadium as a 30.5-point favorite, No. 13 Texas Tech hosts No. 22 Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite in a key Big 12 matchup, and No. 12 Ole Miss is an 11.5-point favorite against Auburn at 12:45 p.m. ET. In the evening window, No. 11 Texas is a 20-point favorite against Mississippi State. If you like to track lines as they move, the live NCAAF odds page is a handy place to check before kickoff. New to wagering? Read our responsible gambling page first and only bet what you can afford to lose.

This Week’s Best Bets

Here is where we land on the three featured games, based on the lines at the time of writing. Lines can move, so check the current number before you bet.

• Georgia vs. Florida: Florida +12.5. The Gators have already knocked off Texas and Ole Miss, and a rivalry game with a big spread usually stays closer than expected.
• Ohio State at USC: USC +6.5. A true freshman or redshirt freshman quarterback on the road is a lot to ask, and USC needs this one badly.
• Miami at North Carolina: North Carolina +14. Each of the Tar Heels’ losses has been close, and Belichick-coached teams tend to keep underdog games tight.

The Nos. 1, 2 and 3 teams in the country are all favored on Saturday, in a season when favorites have been falling constantly. Enjoy the chaos, and keep the underdogs in mind.