Lakers vs Warriors Prediction: Can Curry and Golden State Cover Against Los Angeles?

The Warriors have finally found their footing at 2-3, and now they get the Lakers, the team that beat them by 22 on opening night.

Quick take:

• Pick: Golden State Warriors +2.5
• Why: Stephen Curry is rolling, the Warriors are home on a two-game winning streak, and the line has already crept toward Los Angeles.
• The number to watch: Curry is averaging 28.8 points per game and has hit 100 percent of his free throws.

Friday night at Chase Center is the second meeting of the season between two Pacific Division rivals. Tip-off is at 10:00 PM ET, and the game counts toward NBA Cup group play.

The Lakers (4-1) sit fourth in the West and are scoring 123.2 points per game while shooting 52.9 percent from the field. They opened 3-0, dropped a 136-129 home game to Portland on Tuesday, then bounced back with a 103-87 win over the Clippers on Wednesday behind 23 points from Quentin Grimes and 21 from Collin Sexton. The Warriors (2-3) opened the year 0-3 but have since won at Denver and at Minnesota, and they sit 10th in the West heading into the matchup.

Lakers Are Short Favorites, but the Line Has Moved

Los Angeles is a small road favorite, laying 2.5 points at most books with a moneyline in the neighborhood of -130 to -140. Golden State is around +115 on the moneyline, and the total is hanging between 233.5 and 234.5. The Warriors spread opened closer to +1.5 and has drifted out to +2.5, a sign the market has leaned toward Los Angeles. It is still a far cry from the 6.5 points the Lakers laid when these teams met on October 21, so the market is treating the Warriors with more respect at home.

When a line moves toward the favorite and then stalls at a number this small, the underdog side is often where the value hides, particularly when the underdog is playing in its own building. If you want to compare prices across books, our live NBA odds page is a good place to start.

Recent Form

The form and head-to-head data below tells a split story: the Lakers have the better record and have owned this series lately, while the Warriors are the team trending up.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Curry, Lendeborg and a Short-Handed Rotation

The opener was ugly for Golden State. Luka Doncic scored 28 and Walker Kessler went a perfect 12-for-12 from the floor for 26 points in a 127-105 Lakers win. Los Angeles has won seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings and is 4-0 against the spread in those games.

But that was a different Warriors team. Curry is averaging 28.8 points on 47.7 percent shooting, and he dropped 44 points against Minnesota on Wednesday, going a perfect 16-for-16 at the line. Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 22.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game and put up 57 points and 21 rebounds across the wins at Denver and Minnesota. Brandin Podziemski is adding 14.7 points and 4.7 assists as a starter, and Draymond Green chipped in nine rebounds, six assists and two blocks against the Timberwolves despite scoring just three points.

Golden State is averaging 43.8 rebounds per game, including 15.6 offensive boards, while Los Angeles is grabbing just 38.0 rebounds a night.

That rebounding gap matters because the Lakers shoot efficiently, which means the Warriors’ best path to extra possessions is cleaning up the misses that do come. In a game that looks likely to be decided by a handful of points, second chances could be the difference.

The Lakers have their own firepower. Doncic is averaging 36.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists while shooting 48.4 percent, and Austin Reaves is at 24.4 points on 56.9 percent shooting. Kessler has been a revelation as a rim presence, averaging 14.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks on 75.0 percent shooting. The Lakers are also holding opponents to 113.6 points per game, compared with the 119.4 the Warriors are surrendering. That defensive gap is the biggest reason Los Angeles is favored, and it is the one thing Golden State has to solve if it wants to turn the tables.

Health is a factor on both sides. Golden State is without Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis, and Gui Santos is doubtful with knee tendinitis. Los Angeles is missing Cameron Carr and Adou Thiero, and Ziaire Williams is questionable. Doncic sat out Wednesday on the second night of a back-to-back with back tightness, so his status is worth checking before tip.

Prediction and Best Bet

This is close to a coin flip with a slight lean toward home cooking. The Lakers have the better record and the better offense, but Curry coming off a 44-point night in his own building is a dangerous proposition. Expect a one-possession game late.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Warriors 118, Lakers 116
2. Best Bet: Golden State Warriors +2.5

Take the points with the home underdog. Even if the Lakers find a way to win, a Warriors cover is very much in play.