Hornets vs Wizards Prediction: Charlotte Looks To Sweep The Season Series In NBA Cup Play

Charlotte beat Washington by seven four nights ago, and now the two teams run it back in the capital with NBA Cup group-play points on the line.

Quick take:

• Pick: Charlotte Hornets +1.5
• Why: Brandon Miller is scoring at will, and the Hornets already proved they can handle Washington’s two-star lineup.
• The number to watch: 39, Miller’s career-high output in the Oct. 26 meeting

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2, sixth in the Eastern Conference) visit the Washington Wizards (2-3, ninth) at Capital One Arena on Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET. It is the second meeting between these teams in five days, and it counts in the East’s Group C table for the NBA Cup.

Charlotte won the first round 110-103 behind a career night from Miller. Washington is still searching for consistency, bouncing between a 128-116 win over Milwaukee and a 121-111 loss at Cleveland in its last week. The Wizards can score, but they have not been able to string stops together.

Wizards Are Slim Favorites, But The Market Is Split

Washington is a 1.5-point home favorite with the total sitting around 220.5. On the moneyline, the Wizards are roughly -120 and the Hornets about +102, which makes this close to a coin flip in the eyes of the books. Winning the first game on the road and still getting points, or near it, is the kind of price that deserves a look. Anyone tracking the market can follow the live NBA odds for movement before tip-off.

There is a case for the other side, and it deserves honest weight. Washington is at home, it has the only pairing on the floor with two proven stars in Young and Davis, and the Wizards are 1-1 at Capital One Arena this season. A team that scores 124 at Chicago and 128 against Milwaukee is capable of a big night offensively. The problem is the other end, where Washington allowed 121 at Cleveland and 110 in Charlotte while shooting itself back into games only after falling behind.

Recent Form

Both teams are coming off road losses, so neither arrives with real momentum. The form and head-to-head tables below show how the two sides have trended and how this season’s first meeting played out.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Miller Leads A Hornets Team Built On Depth

Brandon Miller is averaging 25.6 points through five games and has scored 34, 39 and 31 in his last three. He shot 15 of 28 against Washington on Monday, including five three-pointers, and Charlotte’s supporting cast showed up around him. Naz Reid added 18 points and 12 rebounds, Moussa Diabate had 11 points and 17 rebounds, and Grayson Allen came off the bench for 15.

That rebounding edge is worth remembering. Diabate leads the team at 9.4 boards a game, and Reid is at 8.8, so Charlotte can win the glass against a Wizards front line that leans heavily on Anthony Davis.

Charlotte led 98-84 with 5:15 left on Monday, and Washington needed a late push just to get within seven.

The Wizards have real talent. Davis is averaging 21.8 points and 8.4 rebounds, Trae Young is at 20.6 points and 10.4 assists, and Kyshawn George and Alex Sarr are both contributing. Davis scored 29 and Young finished with 22 and 10 in the first meeting, and Washington still lost.

Injuries matter here. Dennis Schroder is questionable with a right foot issue, and Kon Knueppel remains out while on G League assignment, with a hamstring injury keeping him out through at least Nov. 2. Coby White and Grant Williams are also out. For Washington, Tre Johnson is questionable with an Achilles issue, and Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic and Jamir Watkins are all out. Charlotte’s depth is thinner than it was a week ago, but Washington’s is thinner still.

The Hornets’ own recent form is uneven, which is why this is not a lock. They beat Brooklyn 110-103 and Miami 115-110, were blown out 128-81 by Atlanta, beat Washington, and then lost 97-89 at Detroit on Wednesday. That Detroit game was a 97-point night from a team that averages just 104 points per game on the season, so the offense still leans on Miller to carry the scoring. If Schroder, who is averaging 4.8 assists, sits or plays at less than full speed, the burden on Miller and on Reid as a secondary creator grows.

The pace and total tell a similar story. With the number around 220.5 and both teams having cleared 100 points in most of their games, the over is a reasonable lean, but the side offers a cleaner edge. Charlotte’s defense has allowed about 111 points per game, which ranks in the top half of the league, and that is the stat that has to hold against a Washington offense averaging more than 20 points from each of its two stars.

Prediction and Best Bet

Charlotte has the better top-end scorer in form, the rebounding edge, and a recent win in this exact matchup. Washington is the better home team on paper because of Young and Davis, but the Wizards have given up too many easy looks this week. Expect another close game that Charlotte controls for stretches.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Hornets 113, Wizards 110
2. Best Bet: Hornets +1.5

Getting points with the team that already beat this opponent and has the hottest scorer on the floor is the right side. Take Charlotte, and the moneyline near even money is fine too for anyone shopping the best sportsbook reviews and prices.