Golden State Valkyries vs Connecticut Sun Prediction: Best Bet for WNBA Wednesday

Golden State has quietly become the best defense in the WNBA, and Connecticut is walking into Mohegan Sun Arena as the league’s most inefficient offense — this line reflects that gap almost exactly.

Quick take:

• Pick: Golden State Valkyries -13.5
• Why: The Valkyries allow just 76.3 points per game, and the Sun are without three rotation bigs tonight
• The number to watch: Connecticut’s 42.8% team field-goal clip, 15th in the league

Golden State (26-11) has clinched a playoff berth and sits second in the West, four games back of Minnesota, riding a one-game win streak after throttling the Lynx 80-66 on the road Monday. Connecticut (10-27) is the seventh seed in the East and has nothing left to play for except pride, though it did just snap a mini-funk with an 87-81 win over Chicago on Tuesday.

A Line That Keeps Growing

The spread opened around -9.5 to -12.5 depending on the book and has crept up to -13.5 across most major sportsbooks, with Golden State’s moneyline sitting anywhere from -833 to -1000. That kind of line movement toward the favorite usually means sharp and public money are lined up on the same side, and here it’s easy to see why — Connecticut is dealing with a M.A.S.H. unit up front, with Brittney Griner, Rayah Marshall, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa all sidelined for Tuesday’s game, and Leila Lacan already gone for four games on FIBA World Cup duty. The total sits at 150.5, and the Over has cashed in each of Golden State’s last three games.

Recent Form

Golden State has won five of its last six, while Connecticut is 3-7 over its last 10 despite Tuesday’s win — the head-to-head data below fills in the rest of the picture.

Showing 5 of last 10 meetings

Why Golden State’s Defense Travels So Well

Gabby Williams is the engine here, averaging 14.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and a league-leading-caliber 1.7 steals a night, and she’s the type of point-of-attack defender who makes a shorthanded Connecticut backcourt work for every possession. Janelle Salaün has quietly been Golden State’s most efficient scorer, putting up 13.1 points a game on 42.3% shooting from the floor and an excellent 82.7% from the line, and she’s shooting nearly 40% from three on real volume. Veronica Burton runs the offense at 12.5 points and 5.6 assists, giving the Valkyries a steady hand against a Sun defense that ranks near the bottom of the league defensively.

Connecticut’s lone bright spot is Leila Lacan, who’s averaging 11.6 points and 4.6 assists and just torched Chicago for a strong two-way outing, but she’s walking into a Golden State defense that’s held opponents to 76.3 points a game — the stingiest mark in the WNBA.

Connecticut is starting Tuesday’s game without Griner, Marshall, and Nelson-Ododa — its top three centers by minutes this month — against a Golden State frontcourt anchored by Kiah Stokes, who’s averaging 1.7 blocks a game.

That frontcourt mismatch is the whole story tonight. Golden State gets to attack the paint against replacement-level size, and on the other end, an undersized, injury-riddled Sun frontline has no answer for Salaün and Williams working off screens. It’s the kind of matchup where a double-digit spread makes complete sense on paper, and the market has already voted with its feet by pushing the line from single digits into the mid-teens.

Prediction and Best Bet

Golden State’s defense and depth carry the day against a Connecticut team playing out the string with a patchwork frontcourt. Expect the Valkyries to build a comfortable cushion by halftime and cruise from there.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 88, Connecticut Sun 71
2. Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -13.5

With Connecticut down three centers and Golden State locked into a playoff push, this is one of the more lopsided matchups on tonight’s sports betting odds board.