2026 Home Run Derby Odds: Schwarber Favored, but Caminero and Murakami Could Steal the Show

The Home Run Derby has never looked like this. For years the event lived on cable, sandwiched between studio segments and ad breaks, but the 2026 edition breaks from that mold entirely. Monday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, eight of baseball’s biggest sluggers will step in against a countdown clock, a live crowd, and a viewing audience watching through a service that has never carried a live sports event of this scale before.

The location matters just as much as the format. Citizens Bank Park is Kyle Schwarber’s home stadium, and the Phillies’ designated hitter enters as the betting favorite in a field that also includes his own teammate. Add in a Rays rookie who has been the hottest power hitter in baseball over the last three weeks, a White Sox slugger with some of the most jaw-dropping exit velocities in the sport, and a Royals hitter whose swing is built entirely for moments like this one, and the board gets interesting fast for bettors looking for value beyond the obvious name at the top.

How to Watch: Netflix Takes Over the Derby

This is the headline change for 2026. For the first time in Derby history, the event will not air on linear cable at all — it streams exclusively live on Netflix. Coverage begins around 7:00 p.m. ET with pre-Derby programming, and the competition itself gets underway at 8:00 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park.

Any active Netflix subscription unlocks the broadcast, from the Standard plan with ads at $8.99 per month all the way up to Premium 4K at $26.99 per month. There is no separate pay-per-view purchase required and no additional fee tacked onto an existing plan. One wrinkle worth flagging for MLB.TV subscribers: that service is blacked out from streaming the Derby live because of Netflix’s exclusivity window, so the Netflix app is the only path to watching as it happens. Viewers in Canada can catch regional All-Star Week coverage through Sportsnet instead.

Schwarber and Caminero Headline a Loaded Board

Schwarber comes in with 32 home runs already this season, leading all of baseball, and he’s set as the +340 favorite on the FanDuel and BetMGM consensus board. He led the National League with 56 homers last year, and doing this in front of a Philadelphia crowd that has watched him mash all season only adds to the case. Bettors weighing a favorite bet or looking at the FanDuel promo code for a Derby-night account should know exactly what they’re backing: raw power with a home-crowd boost.

The number that keeps pulling sharper eyes away from Schwarber, though, belongs to Junior Caminero. The Rays third baseman sits at +425 with 27 home runs on the year, but it’s the way he got there that stands out — 11 homers in an 11-day stretch from June 23 through July 4 heading into the break. His bat speed grades out in the 100th percentile among major leaguers, and several analysts have argued he should be the true favorite regardless of what the odds say. For anyone shopping a BetMGM promo code ahead of the event, Caminero at +425 is the number worth circling as a value play against the field.

The Full Field and Where the Value Might Hide

Beyond the top two, the board features a mix of raw power, home-field intrigue, and pure derby specialists. Here’s how the field of eight and their current odds shake out:

• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies, DH) — 32 HR, +340
• Junior Caminero (Rays, 3B) — 27 HR, +425
• Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) — 20 HR, +470
• Jordan Walker (Cardinals) — 22 HR, +600
• Jac Caglianone (Royals) — 14 HR, +650
• Bryce Harper (Phillies) — 20 HR, +850
• Ben Rice (Yankees) — 25-29 HR, +900
• Willson Contreras (Red Sox) — 20 HR, +1100

Murakami is the name generating the most buzz among longer-shot bettors. He’s hit a ball 451 feet this season and has produced multiple exit velocities north of 114 mph, the kind of raw thump that plays perfectly in a derby setting where distance and bat speed matter more than a full season’s worth of contact. Jordan Walker brings similar appeal — he ranks fifth in MLB in average exit velocity at 94.3 mph and has a 459-foot blast of his own on his 2026 résumé, giving him a real path to an upset if he finds his timing early.

Then there’s Jac Caglianone, who arrives with the fewest home runs of anyone in the field at 14 but leads every other competitor in average home run distance at 419 feet. That profile is close to a prototype derby specialist: a hitter who doesn’t always get to his power in game action but turns every batting-practice-style swing into a moonshot. At +650, he’s a live longshot worth including on any exotic ticket.

Bryce Harper gets the same home-park boost as Schwarber, and his splits back it up — a .924 OPS at Citizens Bank Park compared to .819 on the road this season. Ben Rice quietly owns the second-best home run-to-fly-ball ratio in the majors at 28.9%, a metric that rewards derby-style pull power even if his overall home run total trails the leaders. Willson Contreras closes out the board as the longest shot at +1100, though catchers have pulled off derby surprises before.

One notable absence looms over the whole event: Cal Raleigh, last year’s Derby champion, is not part of the 2026 field, leaving the door open for a first-time winner. Bettors browsing markets through a DraftKings promo code or a Caesars promo code should note that outside prediction models are split — Bleacher Report has Murakami topping Schwarber in an epic final, while BetMGM’s own staff prediction leans toward Caminero as the field’s most undervalued number.

The Betting Angle

Chalk bettors have every reason to lean on Schwarber given the raw home run total and the ballpark he calls home, and there’s nothing wrong with taking the favorite at plus-money in an event this unpredictable. But the derby has a long history of rewarding bat speed and distance over full-season volume, which is exactly why Caminero’s recent surge and Murakami’s power profile carry real weight at their current numbers. Caglianone’s distance metric makes him the field’s classic sleeper — the guy who doesn’t hit the most homers in games but turns every derby swing into a souvenir. Anyone building a ticket around this year’s Derby would do well to check the Live MLB Odds page for the latest line movement before first pitch, since derby markets tend to shift as the broadcast approaches. There’s no shortage of ways to attack this board — the safe favorite, the analytics-driven value play, or the pure power longshot — and that range of legitimate paths is what makes this year’s field one of the most bettable in recent Derby memory.