Rangers vs. Yankees Prediction: Aaron Judge and Will Warren Look to Finish the Sweep

The New York Yankees are rolling through May, and the Texas Rangers are limping into the Bronx for Game 3 of this series having already dropped the first two. New York enters Thursday’s 4:35 PM ET matchup at 25-11 and riding a 9-1 stretch over their last ten games. The Yankees have an opportunity to complete a sweep on their home turf with Will Warren taking the hill, and the numbers on both sides make New York a difficult team to bet against right now.

Texas arrives at 16-19 with a dismal 3-7 record over its last ten games, scoring just 3.3 runs per game during that stretch and riding a three-game losing streak. This is about as uneven a series matchup as you will find in a regular season three-gamer. The Rangers need something extraordinary on Thursday to avoid the sweep.

New York Listed as a Heavy Home Favorite

The Yankees are installed as -174 favorites on the moneyline, with the Rangers sitting at +146. The run line has New York at -1.5 (-102) and Texas at +1.5 (-122), making the Yankee run line nearly a push in terms of odds — a sign of just how dominant the market expects New York to be. The total is set at 8.5 runs. Bettors in the metro area can check out New York sports betting apps to get in on the action before first pitch. The live MLB odds page tracks all line movement throughout the day.

Warren Is Dealing, and Eovaldi Is Getting Hit Hard

Will Warren has been one of the best starters in the American League this season. He enters at 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.062 WHIP, and a strikeout rate of 10.99 per nine innings. His 93.9 mph fastball generates a 24.4 percent whiff rate, and his xERA of 3.38 suggests his production is sustainable. The Yankees have gone 6-1 in his seven starts this year. Warren is young, sharp, and pitching with complete command right now.

Nathan Eovaldi is the counter from Texas, and the surface numbers look reasonable at 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA — but the advanced metrics tell a more alarming story. He has surrendered nine home runs in just 32.2 innings pitched, translating to a 2.48 HR/9 rate. His cutter is generating a .393 xwOBA against, and his four-seam fastball is getting absolutely punished at a .468 xwOBA. Those are not the numbers of a pitcher who should be starting a game in Yankee Stadium, where the park factor sits at 1.05 and the ball tends to carry.

Aaron Judge enters this game hitting .273 with 15 home runs, 28 RBI, and a 1.066 OPS. His career numbers against Eovaldi across 41 plate appearances show a .324 average and a .931 OPS with two home runs. Judge has historically had success against Eovaldi, and today could be another productive afternoon for the Yankees captain. New York’s run differential of plus-50 on the season is one of the best in baseball and reflects a team that wins games convincingly.

One interesting name to watch on the Texas side is Josh Jung, who has been quietly productive lately. He is hitting .320 with a .557 slugging percentage and a 1.010 OPS against right-handed pitching, with a 1.243 OPS over the last seven days. Jung could be a threat if Warren makes a mistake, but one hot hitter is unlikely to be enough against a Yankees team this loaded.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Yankees have the better pitcher, the hotter lineup, the home crowd, and the motivation to close out a sweep. Texas has been one of the worst-performing teams in the league over the past ten days and has failed to generate any consistent offense during that stretch. There is very little here that favors the Rangers, and Warren should be able to exploit Eovaldi’s vulnerabilities on the opposing side.

• Prediction: New York Yankees 7, Texas Rangers 3
• Best Bet: New York Yankees -1.5 run line (-102)

The run line at -102 is one of the best values on today’s board. Getting New York to win by two or more at near even money, with Will Warren on the mound and Eovaldi’s propensity to give up home runs in a hitter-friendly ballpark, makes this a highly compelling play. The Yankees are a complete team right now, and sweeping the Rangers at home fits the trajectory of their season.