Oilers vs Maple Leafs Prediction: Over Looks Good in Toronto

Edmonton arrives in Toronto with the best record in the Pacific, and the Maple Leafs arrive with a five-game losing streak and a goaltending problem.

Quick take:

• Pick: Over 6.5 total goals
• Why: Edmonton’s top-three power play meets a Toronto defense that allows 3.5 goals a game, and the Leafs have leaked goals for two straight weeks.
• The number to watch: Toronto has allowed 3.5 goals per game over its last 10.

The Edmonton Oilers (14-3-3) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (8-11-2) at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday night, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET. The standings gap is wide. Edmonton leads the Pacific Division with 31 points and is 7-0-1 on the road, while Toronto sits seventh in the Atlantic with 18 points and is 4-8-1 at home.

Recent form pulls the two teams even further apart. The Oilers are 6-2-2 over their last 10 and beat Philadelphia in overtime on Wednesday. The Leafs are 3-7-0 over the same stretch and have lost five in a row, most recently 5-2 at home to Minnesota on Thursday.

But this matchup carries a wrinkle. When these teams met on October 24 in Edmonton, Toronto won 7-2. That is the only meeting so far this season, and it is a reminder that the standings don’t always tell the whole story.

Oilers vs Maple Leafs Odds: A Favorite With a Catch

Oddsmakers have Edmonton as a road favorite at roughly -152 on the moneyline, with Toronto around +127. The puck line has the Oilers at -1.5 near +150, and the game total is sitting at 6.5 with the over priced at about -132. Toronto’s recent games have been high-scoring on both ends, and the total reflects that. If you are opening a new account before puck drop, check the DraftKings promo code offer first.

Recent Form

The form tables below put the gap in black and white: one team has been winning, and the other has been losing games it was expected to compete in.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Over Is the Play at Scotiabank Arena

Start with Edmonton’s offense. The Oilers score about 4.0 goals per game, third in the league, and their power play is clicking at 33.3%, also third. Connor McDavid leads the team with 49 points, 38 of them assists, and Leon Draisaitl has 18 goals. Evan Bouchard runs the back end of the top power-play unit and has averaged 1.7 points per game this season. When Edmonton scores at least one power-play goal, it is 8-1-2.

Toronto’s defensive numbers are a mess. The Leafs allow 3.52 goals per game, 26th in the NHL, and have given up 3.5 per game across their last 10. During the current losing streak they have allowed six to Colorado, five to Minnesota and four to New Jersey. Sergei Bobrovsky is the likely starter, and he is 3-8-2 with a 3.47 GAA and a .881 save percentage. Anthony Stolarz is better on paper at .900, but Bobrovsky has started 13 of Toronto’s 21 games.

The goaltending picture adds another layer. Stolarz has actually been the Leafs’ best answer to Edmonton: across three appearances against the Oilers he faced 98 shots and allowed seven, a .929 save percentage. If Toronto goes to him instead of Bobrovsky, the defensive math improves a little, but even Stolarz sits at a 2.90 GAA this season and is behind a team that gives up 29.2 shots a game.

Toronto allows 3.5 goals a game, and Edmonton scores about 4.0 of them.

There is an honest counterpoint. Edmonton’s goaltending has been solid, and the Oilers have allowed just 2.3 goals per game over their last 10. Devon Levi (8-1-0, 2.75 GAA) is the likely starter, with Tristan Jarry (2.50 GAA, .908) the alternative. Underlying numbers also say Edmonton has run a little hot, with a 105.0 PDO.

Shot volume is where the over gets extra support. Toronto averages 28.0 shots for and 29.2 against per game, while Edmonton is at 25.5 for and 26.6 against. Neither team is a possession monster, which tends to produce open-ice, trade-chances hockey rather than a grind. Toronto also holds a slight edge in even-strength high-danger share (50.7% to 46.2%), so the Leafs are creating decent looks even while losing.

Edmonton’s depth matters too. Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins skate on that top power-play unit with McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard, and Vasily Podkolzin has been riding on the first line. Isaac Howard is on injured reserve with a knee injury, but the Oilers’ scoring has not slowed: they have averaged 3.4 goals per game across their last 10.

That is exactly why the total is more attractive than a side. Even if Edmonton regresses a bit, Toronto still has to score to stay in the game, and the Leafs have shown they can. Auston Matthews has 12 goals and 29 points, and Toronto put seven past Edmonton three weeks ago.

Toronto’s penalty kill is a real strength at 85.5%, sixth in the league. Edmonton’s is not, at 76.9%, which gives the Leafs a path to goals of their own.

Prediction and Best Bet

Edmonton is the better team and should win, but Toronto’s defense and goaltending hand the Oilers plenty of scoring chances, and the Leafs can score on a shaky Edmonton penalty kill. I expect goals at both ends, which makes the 6.5 total the cleaner angle than laying a price on the side.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Oilers 5, Maple Leafs 3
2. Best Bet: Over 6.5 total goals

Edmonton’s offense against a Toronto defense in free fall makes eight goals easy to picture, and a 4-3 game still lands on the right side of the number.