3 NFL Passing Props to Back This Sunday

Week 8 of the NFL season brings a Sunday slate loaded with quarterbacks who can fill up a stat sheet, and the prop market is giving us some interesting numbers to work with. Whether you are new to player props or just looking for a few ideas, quarterback passing markets are one of the easiest places to start because the logic is simple: how many yards or completions will this passer finish with, and does the matchup point toward more or fewer?

We are targeting three of the best-situated passers on the board: Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, Jared Goff in Detroit and Dak Prescott in Dallas. Each one has a clear recent trend, a matchup that fits the bet and a reason the number looks beatable. Lines move, so always compare prices at your sportsbook before you place anything.

Joe Burrow Over 271.5 Passing Yards Against Tennessee

Burrow is playing some of the best football of his career. He has 1,653 passing yards and 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions while completing about 71.7 percent of his passes, and he has thrown for 282 or more yards in three of his six games. Last time out he threw for 292 yards and four touchdowns against Baltimore, finishing with a perfect passer rating in the second half. His season average of roughly 275.5 passing yards per game already sits above this line, which is available at -113 on DraftKings.

The matchup helps. Tennessee allows 233 passing yards per game, 24th in the league, and the Titans just traded star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to the Bears, who led all NFL interior defenders with 28 pressures. Without him, Burrow should get more time in the pocket against a defense that already ranks near the bottom in dropback success rate.

The only real worry is the point spread. Cincinnati is a heavy home favorite, around 12 points, so a blowout could shrink Burrow’s workload in the fourth quarter. But the Bengals rank first in pass rate over expectation and have struggled to run the ball, so they tend to keep throwing even with a lead. If you want to compare live NFL odds before kickoff, this is a number worth locking in early.

Jared Goff Over 22.5 Completions Against Minnesota

This one looks counterintuitive at first. Minnesota is 6-0 and has one of the stingiest pass defenses in football, so why back Goff? Because completions and yards are different stories. Brian Flores’ Vikings blitz on roughly 70 percent of pass rushes, by far the highest rate in the league, and they sent extra rushers on over 85 percent of dropbacks last week. Against heavy pressure, quarterbacks get the ball out quickly, and quick throws to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and the running backs add up to completions even when the yards per catch stay modest.

Goff is the right quarterback for that kind of game. He has completed 150 of 223 attempts (67.3 percent) for 1,788 yards and 14 touchdowns without a single interception this season, and he leads the NFL at roughly 298 passing yards per game. Detroit is a small home favorite, about three points, with a total near 46, so the Lions should be throwing plenty. The number has already come down from 23.5 to 22.5 as bettors pushed the under, which makes the price on the over a bit friendlier. FanDuel had it at -114 at last check.

The risk is that Minnesota’s pressure actually disrupts the Lions and drives their passing game off schedule, but even then the pattern of short, hurried throws favors completions.

Dak Prescott Passing Yards Against Arizona

Prescott’s number varies more than the other two, with books posting anywhere from about 270.5 to 276.5 yards, so shop for the best line before you bet. He has thrown for 1,851 yards with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, and his recent game log is a mix: 316 against Tampa Bay, 258 at Green Bay and 212 on Monday night at Philadelphia, a game where Dallas won 38-21 behind 204 rushing yards.

That Philadelphia game is the reason the line is not higher, but it is also a reason to lean over. The Cardinals allow 228 passing yards per game and rank 31st in opponent dropback EPA, and Dallas has one of the weakest pass defenses in the league, which means Arizona and Jacoby Brissett should be able to keep scoring. A shootout game script, with totals ranging from the high 40s to the mid 50s depending on the book, pushes Prescott toward 35 or more attempts. His season average is about 264 yards, so you want the lowest posted number possible, ideally 270.5.

This is the pick with the most uncertainty. Prescott has historically been quieter against Arizona, and a Dallas lead built on the ground could cap his volume. Treat this as a lean rather than a lock and take only a number you are comfortable with. If you are new to these markets, our betting calculator is a quick way to see what a payout looks like before you commit.

Sunday’s Edge: Three Quarterbacks, Three Reasons

All three bets come down to volume and matchup. Burrow has a leaky Titans pass defense and a pass-first offense, Goff gets a defense that forces quick throws, and Prescott faces a Cardinals pass defense that gives up yards through the air. Here are the plays, with the prices we found:

• Joe Burrow OVER 271.5 passing yards (-113 DraftKings)
• Jared Goff OVER 22.5 completions (-114 FanDuel)
• Dak Prescott OVER passing yards (lean, about 270.5 to 276.5 depending on your book)

Check inactives before kickoff, shop your lines and only wager what you can afford to lose.