3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on Halloween (Oct. 31)

Halloween brings a 10-game NHL slate, and with that many games there is plenty of room to find shot volume. Shots on goal props are one of the friendliest markets for newer bettors because they are simple: pick a player, decide if he will take more or fewer shots than the number the book posts, and watch the game. No bounces, no deflections, just whether a star keeps firing the puck.

Today’s three targets are all elite shooters playing for teams that should have the puck a lot. Lines can move all day, so always check your own book before you bet. These are the numbers we found posted this morning.

Jason Robertson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

Robertson is the easiest one to explain. The Dallas winger has logged 3 or more shots in seven straight games, and in the last 10 he is averaging 3.6 shots per night, with games of 7, 4, 4 and 3 in that stretch. His season mark sits at 43 shots through 13 games, and the 3.5 consensus line is right around his recent average.

The matchup helps. Dallas is a heavy home favorite against Columbus at 8 p.m. ET, and Robertson is projected for roughly 22 minutes with about four minutes on the power play, which is where extra shots come from. One projection model gives him 3.56 expected shots and a 67 percent chance to reach 3 or more. A 3.5 line asks for four, so this is a play on volume more than a lock, but a streak this steady is hard to ignore.

Columbus has not named its goalie, with Jet Greaves and Cam Talbot splitting the work evenly, while Jake Oettinger has taken eight of Dallas’s last 10 starts. Shot volume does not depend much on which goalie is in net, which is a nice feature of this market. If you want a safer number, check whether your book offers 2.5, where the same projection gives Robertson an 85 percent chance.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots on Goal

MacKinnon is the biggest name on the board, and the book knows it. FanDuel posts his line at 4.5 with the over at +112 and the under at -146, so you are getting plus money on a player who averages about four shots a game this season. That is a high bar. In the last 10 games he has cleared 4.5 only about 30 percent of the time, which is why the over pays well.

So why take it? Colorado is a heavy favorite, roughly -400 on the moneyline, against a Calgary team that has lost nine of its last 10 against the Avalanche and has lost seven straight road games after a win. A game where Colorado controls play and piles up power plays is exactly where MacKinnon’s shot totals spike. He also managed only 2 shots in each of his last two games, so he is due to run closer to his season rate.

This is the highest-risk, highest-payout pick of the three. If you would rather play it safer, ask your book for the 3.5 line instead, since projections have him around 3.4 to 3.9 shots tonight. Anyone new to props should size this one smaller than the others.

Macklin Celebrini Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

Celebrini is the afternoon play, with Ottawa visiting San Jose at 4 p.m. ET. The Sharks’ center has 5 goals and 11 assists through 12 games, plays on the top line with Collin Graf and Will Smith, and averages a little over four shots per game this season. His last posted line was 3.5, and he finished with exactly 4 shots against Buffalo on Oct. 27, so the over cashed there at +114.

The price is the appeal. His over at 3.5 has hit in roughly half of the games with a posted line, so a plus-money price on that number is a fair deal for a coin flip that leans his way against a banged-up Ottawa roster. Ottawa is missing goalie Linus Ullmark, so the Senators are expected to go with Jonas Johansson or Samuel Ersson in net.

One caution: no book had a posted line for this game when we checked, so confirm the number before betting. If it opens at 2.5, the over becomes a much stronger play. If it jumps to 4.5, pass.

Lock These In

All three picks lean on elite shooters with plenty of ice time and power play minutes. Robertson is the steadiest, MacKinnon is the plus-money swing, and Celebrini is the early-game value if the line holds. If you are comparing prices, the live NHL odds page is a good place to start, and the betting calculator shows how payouts work on any of these.

• Jason Robertson OVER 3.5 shots on goal (check your book for the current price)
• Nathan MacKinnon OVER 4.5 shots on goal (+112 at FanDuel at last check)
• Macklin Celebrini OVER 3.5 shots on goal (confirm the line before betting)

Shots props reward patience and line shopping, so take the number you like and skip the ones you do not. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and enjoy the Halloween hockey.