Dodgers vs. Reds Prediction: Yamamoto Looks to Complete the Sweep of Struggling Cincinnati

The Dodgers just swept this same Reds team by a combined score of 23-6, and Cincinnati has to run it back with the same pitcher who got shelled twice in that stretch.

Quick take:

• Pick: Dodgers -1.5
• Why: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is dealing and Rhett Lowder has allowed 14 combined runs in his last two starts against this exact lineup
• The number to watch: Lowder has surrendered 25 runs (23 earned) across his last five outings

Los Angeles rolls into Great American Ball Park at 91-59 and has already wrapped up the NL West, riding an 8-2 stretch over its last 10 games. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 70-80 and mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, losers in three straight and outscored 23-6 in the three games these two clubs just played in Los Angeles.

This is the fourth and final meeting of a stretch that has been almost entirely one-sided. The Reds haven’t found an answer for this Dodgers lineup, and Tuesday’s pitching matchup doesn’t offer much hope that changes. Cincinnati has been eliminated from postseason contention, while the Dodgers are playing out the string toward October with an eye on rotation health and bullpen usage rather than the standings.

Why the Number Says Blowout Potential

The Dodgers opened as roughly 1.5-run favorites on the run line, priced near -230 on the moneyline, with the total set at 8.5. That’s a notably shorter line than a typical Dodgers road game, and it reflects just how poorly Lowder has pitched against this specific opponent. Cincinnati sits around +190 on the moneyline, and value hunters will note the total has some appeal given how often these two teams have combined for double-digit runs recently — Sunday’s finale alone went final at 14-1.

Recent Form

The gap in form between these two clubs right now is about as stark as it gets in September baseball.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Lowder’s Rematch Problem

Rhett Lowder takes the mound for Cincinnati carrying a 6-10 record and a 5.81 ERA, and his most recent look at this exact Dodgers lineup was about as bad as it gets — seven runs on seven hits and two walks in just 3 1/3 innings last Wednesday, his second consecutive start allowing seven runs. Over his last five outings, Lowder has been tagged for 25 runs across just 25 innings, a stretch that’s dropped his season numbers to a 1.53 WHIP and put real strain on an already stretched Reds bullpen.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, on the other hand, has been the Dodgers’ one true constant all year. He’s 13-8 with a 2.62 ERA and 171 strikeouts, and in his last start against Cincinnati he struck out 10 over seven strong innings in a 14-1 laugher. Mookie Betts provided the early spark with a two-run homer that game, and the middle-inning damage — a Freeland RBI double, a two-run double from Enrique Hernandez, and a two-run single from Teoscar Hernandez — buried the Reds early. That’s the version of the Dodgers lineup Lowder has to face again.

Lowder has allowed 25 runs across his last five starts, including back-to-back seven-run outings.

It’s hard to bet against a rotation ace who just dominated this exact opponent facing a starter who’s been getting worse by the week. The Dodgers don’t need to be perfect here; they just need Yamamoto to give them length and let the bullpen — one of the deepest in baseball down the stretch — close it out. Yamamoto has been the one starter who’s made every turn in the rotation all season, and his workload management down the stretch has been a talking point in Los Angeles as the Dodgers plan for the postseason.

Offensively, this Dodgers lineup has been relentless in September, ranking near the top of MLB in OPS over the last 10 games. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and a deep supporting cast that includes both Hernandez brothers have made life miserable for any starter without swing-and-miss stuff — exactly the profile Lowder brings to the mound.

Cincinnati’s lone counter is desperation. Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain give the Reds swing-for-the-fences upside in any single game, and a team with nothing left to play for sometimes plays loose. But loose hasn’t worked against L.A. lately — it’s mostly led to more of the same. If you’re weighing a same-game or series parlay on this one, it’s worth checking the live MLB odds board before kickoff, since Lowder’s recent line has been moving fast.

Prediction and Best Bet

The trends, the pitching matchup, and the head-to-head history this month all point the same direction. Yamamoto has been excellent against everyone, especially the Reds, and Lowder has to prove he can avoid a third straight disaster start against the exact lineup that’s punished him twice already.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Dodgers 7, Reds 3
2. Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5

Back the Dodgers to cover behind Yamamoto — this matchup has already been decided twice this month, and nothing suggests Tuesday looks any different.