Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction: NLCS Game 4 Picks and Best Bet for October 15

The Dodgers have to win four straight against a Brewers team that has not lost a game in this series, and it all starts tonight against a rookie lefty and a Milwaukee bullpen that has been nearly untouchable.

Quick take:

• Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
• Why: An elimination game at home against a Milwaukee bullpen game gives LA the best shot to extend the series.
• The number to watch: Milwaukee’s 1.74 postseason ERA, the lowest of all 12 playoff teams.

Milwaukee (103-59) sits one win from the World Series after a 6-2 Game 3 victory at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday. Los Angeles (100-62, and 51-30 at home during the regular season) is the two-time defending champion, and it is now facing a sweep.

Game 3 was the kind of loss that stings. The Dodgers led 2-1 on a Will Smith two-run double in the sixth, and Blake Snell had retired 14 straight hitters. Then the seventh happened.

First pitch is 8:00 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium on FS1, and the Dodgers know exactly what is at stake. The champs are the champs until someone takes it from them, and Milwaukee is one win away from doing just that.

Why the Dodgers Are Still Favored Despite the Hole

Oddsmakers have not blinked. DraftKings opened Los Angeles at -174 with Milwaukee at +144, while other books have been closer to -161 and +133 with a 7.5-run total and the Dodgers laying 1.5 on the run line. That is a big number for a team down 3-0, and it tells you the market still trusts the Dodgers’ starter, lineup and home field over a Brewers bullpen game. If you want to shop the price yourself, check the live MLB odds board before first pitch.

The price also reflects how thin Milwaukee’s starting plan is. A team can ride a bullpen for a night, but asking a rookie who has been off since late September to set the tone in a series-clinching road game is a lot, even with a lead this big.

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Here is how both clubs have been trending, along with their meetings tracked on Hello Rookie so far.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

A Rookie, a Bullpen and a Dodgers Starter on a Short Leash

Los Angeles hands the ball to Tyler Glasnow, who has a 1.93 ERA this postseason with five strikeouts over 4.2 innings. He has also walked five in that span, and that is the concern. In the NLDS against Atlanta he lasted 4 2/3 innings, allowing one run, and manager Dave Roberts is expected to have a quick hook with the season on the line.

Milwaukee is expected to start left-hander Shane Drohan, a 27-year-old rookie who has not pitched since Sept. 27, with former Dodger Dustin May following in relief. That is a bullpen game by design. It has worked all October, but a layoff of nearly three weeks is a real question mark for a young starter in a loud, desperate building.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff carries a 1.74 ERA this postseason, the lowest of all 12 teams that made the playoffs.

That number is the reason the Brewers are one win from the Fall Classic, and it is also why the Dodgers are in trouble. Los Angeles scored just two runs on Wednesday, and Shohei Ohtani was moved down to sixth in the order for Game 3, where he singled and walked.

The Brewers also showed how they win. Robert Gasser, a left-hander who began the year at Triple-A Nashville, gave them a stellar start in Game 3, and Milwaukee’s relievers, including DL Hall and Megill, closed the door on Wednesday. Depth is the story of this club. Left-handers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan and right-hander Chad Patrick are all fresh options if Murphy needs to mix and match.

Still, Milwaukee’s run has leaned on a few big swings. Jackson Chourio, the 22-year-old leadoff man, homered on the first pitch of Game 3 and has seven RBI this postseason. Jake Bauers grinded out an 11-pitch at-bat against Snell before launching the go-ahead two-run shot, his first homer of the postseason, and Garrett Mitchell followed with a 438-foot blast. Lightning like that is hard to bottle twice, and the Dodgers’ depth gives Roberts every chance to match up late.

The Dodgers also have lineup questions worth watching. Will Smith’s two-run double in the sixth was a bright spot, and Kyle Tucker was moved into the cleanup spot for Game 3. If those bats get hot at the same time, a rookie starter coming off a long layoff could be in trouble early.

Los Angeles also knows how to survive elimination. Back-to-back titles are proof it can win when the walls close in. For a look at how the title race is priced, our World Series futures page lays it out.

Prediction and Best Bet

Expect the Dodgers to push a run or two early against a pitcher shaking off rust, then lean on their bullpen to hold the line. Milwaukee will not go quietly given that 1.74 postseason ERA, but a desperate lineup at home against a bullpen game is the better side at a fair price.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Dodgers 5, Brewers 3
2. Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers on the moneyline

One more win at home keeps this series alive, and the Dodgers have the roster to get it.