3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 15

Shots on goal are one of the friendlier NHL prop markets for anyone still learning the ropes. You do not need a goal to land, a goalie to stand on his head, or a power play to convert. You just need a player who gets the puck and fires it at the net, and a few of them are doing exactly that on Thursday’s 11-game slate.

We picked three shooters whose volume is real, whose roles are secure, and whose matchups tilt the odds their way. Each one comes with the reasoning behind it, so you know why the line is beatable and not just that it is.

Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal at Toronto

Start with the league leader. Tage Thompson has put 31 shots on net through seven games for the Buffalo Sabres, tops in the NHL, which works out to 4.4 per game. That is nearly a full shot above the 3.5 line posted for tonight in Toronto, priced at +112 for the over and -146 for the under.

The trend backs it up. Thompson has cleared 3.5 in five of his last seven games, so this is not a one-night blip. Last season he averaged 3.4 shots per game over 81 appearances, so the jump to 4.4 shows he is getting more looks. He also leads Buffalo with four goals and seven points, and as the Sabres’ top center he is a focal point of the offense.

The price tells the story. A plus-money over on a player averaging nearly a full shot above the number is the kind of gap worth taking, especially in a game the market sees as a coin flip between two evenly matched teams. Puck drop at Scotiabank Arena is 7:00 PM ET. If you are new to this, it helps to compare live NHL odds before locking anything in, since shot props can move by a half-point or a few cents of juice from one app to the next.

Matt Boldy Over 3.5 Shots on Goal vs. St. Louis

Matt Boldy is the steady one. The Minnesota Wild winger has 27 shots in seven games, about 3.9 per night, and his recent log shows the pattern: one, three, four and three shots across his last four outings, a stretch that also included two goals.

One honest caveat for beginners: 3.5 means you need four shots, which is a real ask on any given night. Boldy averaged 3.4 shots per game across last season’s 82 games, so this year’s rate is running above his norm. A model from Puckwired gives him a 63 percent chance at three or more shots against the Blues, which tells you three is likely and four is the stretch. That is why the price matters. Books have been posting this line right around even money, so shop around rather than taking the first number you see, and check your book for the current price.

The reason to like it anyway is the setup. Minnesota is the favorite at home against St. Louis, and teams that play with the lead tend to hold the puck in the offensive zone, which feeds shooters like Boldy. The game starts at 8:00 PM ET.

Alex DeBrincat Over 3.5 Shots on Goal vs. Philadelphia

Alex DeBrincat has been the engine for a Detroit Red Wings team still finding its footing at 1-3-2. He has four goals and four assists through six games, 24 shots on goal, and an average of 4.0 per game. Two nights ago he fired a team-high six shots against the Devils and scored twice, and across his last two games he has 13 shots in total.

The matchup is the real selling point. The Philadelphia Flyers come in at 0-5-3 with an eight-game losing streak, and Detroit is a clear home favorite at roughly -135. When a team is expected to control the game, its best shooter tends to see more attempts. DeBrincat has recorded four or more shots in three of his six games this year, and a popular alternate market this week has been his 4-plus shots at around even money, so the market agrees he is a volume shooter.

Standard lines for him sit at 3.5, but confirm the number at your sportsbook before you bet, because it varies by app. Puck drop at Little Caesars Arena is 7:30 PM ET. Anyone opening a new account for the first time should read through a DraftKings promo code guide to see what welcome offers are available.

Lock These In

All three players share the same profile: high shot volume, major roles on their teams, and a matchup that should give them room to work. Thompson has the strongest numbers and the best price, Boldy is the most consistent shooter, and DeBrincat has the softest opponent. None of these needs a goal to cash, which is exactly what makes shots props a smart place to start.

• Tage Thompson OVER 3.5 shots on goal (+112)
• Matt Boldy OVER 3.5 shots on goal (check your book for the current price)
• Alex DeBrincat OVER 3.5 shots on goal (check your book for the current price)

Lines move through the day, so grab your numbers early and always bet within your budget. Good luck tonight.