Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes Passing Props to Back for Broncos vs Chiefs on Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football kicks off the 2026 season in style, with the Denver Broncos traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on September 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET. It’s the final game of Week 1, and all eyes will be on the two quarterbacks under center — Bo Nix looking to build on a breakout sophomore year, and Patrick Mahomes making his long-awaited return from a torn ACL and LCL.

Both signal-callers have prop markets worth a look, and with the Broncos boasting the league’s most disruptive pass rush and the Chiefs still finding their footing on offense last season, there’s real signal buried in these QB passing lines. Here are three passing props to consider for Monday night.

Bo Nix Passing Yards: Grinding Toward the Under

Bo Nix’s passing yards prop sits right around 217.5 to 227.5 depending on the book, with most numbers landing near 225.5 and priced close to even money on either side (-114/-114). Nix comes into this one off a strong second NFL season, throwing for 3,931 yards on 612 attempts with 25 touchdowns in 2025 — clear growth from his rookie campaign.

The matchup context matters here, though. Kansas City’s pass defense finished 2025 ranked in the middle of the pack, allowing roughly 195.8 passing yards per game, which isn’t a soft target but also isn’t the kind of defense that regularly shuts quarterbacks down. Nix’s history against the Chiefs specifically shows some swings — he’s gone over 295 yards against them in one recent meeting but also been held under 225 in another, reflecting a game plan that leans on situational football rather than pure volume passing.

With this being a get-right spot for a Denver offense that generally wants to protect a shaky rookie-to-sophomore-year Nix by mixing in the run behind RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins, there’s a case for staying cautious on the over unless the Broncos fall behind and are forced to throw. The number sitting near the coin-flip range makes either side playable, but recent form points to a game script that could cap Nix’s ceiling in a physical, ground-and-pound environment.

Bo Nix Passing Touchdowns: The Market Is Sending a Message

This is where the numbers get loud. Bo Nix’s passing touchdowns prop is set at 1.5, and the market has hammered the under to roughly -174, with the over sitting all the way out at +130. That’s about as clear a signal as sportsbooks send — they expect Nix to throw one touchdown pass or fewer on Monday night.

The reasoning lines up with Denver’s overall approach. The Broncos want to lean on their running backs near the goal line, with RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins both carrying shorter anytime-touchdown odds than Nix himself. Denver’s identity last season was built on a dominant defense and a physical run game that controlled the clock rather than an aerial assault, and that formula isn’t likely to change dramatically in Week 1 against a division rival at a hostile Arrowhead Stadium.

Nix is fully capable of multiple-touchdown games — he threw for 25 scores across the 2025 season — but on a short week against a defense that will be selling out to slow the Broncos’ running attack, the touchdown volume through the air projects as limited. The juice on the under reflects real conviction from the market, and Denver’s run-first philosophy in a tight divisional opener supports that lean.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns: Betting on the Comeback

Patrick Mahomes is officially cleared and carries no injury designation for his return, nine months removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL and LCL suffered last December. He was a full practice participant throughout Week 1 prep, and while he’ll wear a protective brace and may be more limited as a scrambler, everything points to him playing his game on Monday night.

The market is confident he’ll find the end zone more than once. Mahomes’ passing touchdowns prop sits at 1.5, with the over priced between -154 and -161 depending on the book — firmly favored. That confidence makes sense given the weapons around him. Kansas City returns a loaded receiving corps with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt all available, giving Mahomes multiple high-end options to target in scoring position even if his mobility is somewhat capped by the knee.

The counterpoint is real: Denver’s pass rush led the NFL with 68 sacks last season, and in recent meetings against Kansas City specifically, the Broncos have sacked Mahomes 10 times combined across three games while holding him to two touchdowns against three interceptions. If Denver’s front seven gets after him early, that could disrupt rhythm. But playing at home in a get-well spot, with a full complement of playmakers and a coaching staff in Andy Reid that will script easy completions to build confidence, the over on Mahomes’ touchdown total looks like the smarter side of a juiced number.

For bettors looking to shop the best number on any of these lines before kickoff, checking live NFL odds across multiple books is worth the extra couple of minutes.

Best Bets for Broncos-Chiefs Monday Night

This opener sets up as a classic contrast of styles — Denver’s defense-and-run-game identity against a Kansas City offense trying to find its rhythm behind a returning franchise quarterback. All three of these passing props reflect that tension in different ways.

• Bo Nix Passing Yards: monitor the 217.5-227.5 range and lean toward the under in a run-heavy game script
• Bo Nix Passing Touchdowns: Under 1.5 (-174)
• Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-154 to -161)

The through-line here is simple: bet on Denver controlling tempo and limiting Nix’s need to throw for scores, while Mahomes leans on his full arsenal of weapons to get back in the end zone even if his legs aren’t quite what they used to be.