Avalanche vs Senators Prediction: Over 6.5 in Ottawa

The NHL’s highest-scoring offense walks into Ottawa to face a Senators team with the league’s worst power play and a goalie whose availability is a question mark.

Quick take:

• Pick: Over 6.5 goals
• Why: Colorado scores 4.11 goals per game, and nine of the last 10 night meetings between these teams have gone over the total.
• The number to watch: Ottawa’s 12.5% power play, 31st in the NHL, against a Colorado attack that leads the league in scoring.

Both teams arrive at Canadian Tire Centre at 11-6-2 with 24 points, so on paper this looks like a coin flip. The split is in where they have earned those points: Colorado is just 4-5-0 on the road, while Ottawa is a much more comfortable 6-2-1 at home.

The Avalanche still come in with momentum. They are 6-3-1 in their last 10 and won 6-3 in Toronto on Tuesday behind a 28-save night from Mackenzie Blackwood. The Senators had a different Tuesday, falling 3-2 in overtime at home to Washington in a game that fit their season pattern of keeping scores tight while struggling to finish with the man advantage.

That contrast, an elite offense meeting a defense that is decent but not dominant, is why the total is the more interesting market than either side.

Odds Show a Near Pick’em in Ottawa

The market sees this one as close. Colorado is a slight road favorite at roughly -120 on the moneyline, with Ottawa sitting near +100 at home. The total is set at 6.5, with the under priced a little heavier than the over. The puck line has Colorado at -1.5 at plus-money, around +205, while the Senators at +1.5 carry a steep price near -265. Lines shift before puck drop, so compare the live numbers at the DraftKings promo code page and your other books before you bet.

Recent Form

Colorado is 6-3-1 over its last 10 and Ottawa is 5-3-2 over the same stretch. Here is how both teams have looked lately, plus their history together.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Goals Should Come in Ottawa

Start with the Avalanche offense. Colorado averages 4.11 goals per game, tops in the league, and fires 30.4 shots per night, third in the NHL. Nathan MacKinnon leads the way with 10 goals and 20 assists for 30 points in 19 games. Artturi Lehkonen paces the team with 13 goals, Martin Necas has 24 points, and Cale Makar has 23 from the blue line. The Avalanche power play clicks at 22.6%, which matters a lot against this opponent.

Ottawa’s power play is converting at just 12.5%, 31st in the NHL, and its penalty kill sits near 76%.

That penalty kill is the soft spot. Ottawa allows 3.00 goals per game, and Colorado’s top power-play unit of MacKinnon, Necas and Makar is the kind that punishes a leaky kill. The Senators also take their share of penalties, with 233 penalty minutes on the season compared with 166 for Colorado, so the Avalanche should see chances.

Colorado is not airtight either. The Avalanche give up 3.05 goals per game, and Blackwood, for all his 10-3-1 record, carries a 2.63 GAA and a .901 save percentage. Ottawa will get looks, and its attack has real firepower: Tim Stutzle has 23 points with nine goals, Drake Batherson has nine goals and nine assists, and Shane Pinto has seven goals.

The goalie situation in Ottawa is the swing factor. Linus Ullmark has been superb, going 7-1-0 with a 1.33 GAA and .945 save percentage, but his lower-body status has been listed as day to day. If he sits, the crease goes to backup Ersson, who carries a 3.11 GAA and .885 save percentage, and the over becomes even more attractive.

History points the same direction. Colorado has won seven of its last eight against Ottawa, and nine of the last 10 night games between the clubs have gone over the total. The first-period over 1.5 goals market has also hit in five of the last six meetings at Canadian Tire Centre, a sign that these games tend to open up early.

It is also worth noting how Colorado plays in its own building versus away. A 4-5-0 road record does not scream dominance, but the scoring has still shown up, with the Avalanche putting up at least four goals in three of their last five games. If the offense travels, the total takes care of itself.

Short version: the goals have been there for Colorado all season, and Ottawa has not shown it can shut that down.

Prediction and Best Bet

Ottawa’s home record is strong and a healthy Ullmark can steal any game, so the moneyline is not a comfortable spot to lean. The more reliable edge is the special teams gap and the pace: a top-ranked offense against a bottom-ranked power play, with a heavy over history between the two clubs. Expect Colorado to strike first and Ottawa to answer, with a late goal pushing the total past 6.5.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Avalanche 4, Senators 3
2. Best Bet: Over 6.5 total goals

With the league’s best scoring offense facing the league’s worst power play, the over is the cleanest way into this game. Bet responsibly, and shop the best number on the live NHL odds page. If you are new to wagering, the betting calculator helps you size a bet.