Avalanche vs Canadiens Prediction: Fowler Anchors the Under

Colorado brings the league’s second-best offense to Montreal, but it may have to do it without Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar against one of the hottest goalies in the NHL.

Quick take:

• Pick: Under 6.5 goals
• Why: Jacob Fowler has been elite in net for Montreal, and Colorado’s two best players are day-to-day, which pulls the ceiling down on a total that is priced for fireworks.
• The number to watch: Montreal is allowing 2.3 goals per game over its last 10, going 8-0-2.

The Avalanche (11-6-3) visit the Canadiens (12-3-4) at Bell Centre on Saturday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM ET. Montreal is 5-2-3 at home and rolls in off a 5-2 win in Boston on Thursday. Colorado dropped a 4-3 overtime decision in Ottawa the same night, and both MacKinnon and Makar left that game with injuries.

This is a clash of styles. Colorado scores 4.05 goals per game, second in the NHL. Montreal gives up three per game on the season and has tightened that up considerably lately. Something has to give, and the injury report may decide which side of that equation wins out.

Total Set at 6.5 With a Premium on the Under

The market sees the side as a coin flip. Montreal is a slight home favorite around -118 on the moneyline, with Colorado near -102, and the puck line has Montreal at -1.5 for roughly +205. The total sits at 6.5 at most books, with the over priced near +104 and the under around -128, so bettors are paying a premium to take the under. That tells you the market expects goals, and it is the number worth pushing back on. Anyone looking to grab a new-customer offer before wagering can start with the DraftKings promo code.

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Montreal has been far more consistent over the last 10 games, while Colorado’s results have swung between blowout wins and tight losses. The data below shows how each club has fared and how the two have done against each other.

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Why Fowler and a Thin Colorado Lineup Point to the Under

Start between the pipes. Jacob Fowler has a .926 save percentage and a 2.13 goals-against average through 12 starts this season, among the best marks in the league. He is 9-1-2 in that stretch and stopped 30 of 32 shots in Boston on Thursday. Colorado’s likely starter, Mackenzie Blackwood, is 10-3-1 with a more modest .901 save percentage and a 2.63 GAA, which is steady but nothing that slams the door.

The risk for Montreal is the backup. Jakub Dobes sits at .847 with a 4.04 GAA this season, so a change in net would flip this read. Fowler started the last three games for the Canadiens and is the expected starter, but confirmation usually comes close to puck drop.

Montreal has allowed just 2.3 goals per game across its last 10 while going 8-0-2.

Colorado’s offense is the reason this number is 6.5 at all. The Avalanche average 4.05 goals per game, and the power play has climbed to 23.9%, 11th in the NHL, since assistant coach Brett McLean took it over. Artturi Lehkonen has been a quiet engine for them, and MacKinnon has been the main driver with 30 points. But MacKinnon and Makar are both listed day-to-day with lower-body issues, and there is no clean read on either yet. If either one sits, Colorado’s attack loses a lot of its punch.

Montreal does not have much to offer in return on special teams. The Canadiens’ power play converts at just 13.8%, near the bottom of the league, while Colorado’s penalty kill checks in at 80.3%, 10th overall. Cole Caufield leads the way with 12 goals, but Chris Kreider is day-to-day with a leg injury, and Ivan Demidov remains on injured reserve with an ankle injury. That limits how many goals Montreal can realistically add on its own.

Colorado is not without its own cracks. The penalty kill has been in a rut, and the Avalanche have been taking more penalties than earlier in the season, which gives Montreal’s weak power play more chances than it deserves. Even so, a team converting at 13.8% is hard to trust to carry a total over the number.

Shot volume adds one more wrinkle. Montreal controls only 49.8% of shot attempts compared with Colorado’s 52.7%, so Fowler is likely to be busy. But quality matters more than quantity when the goalie is stopping 92.6% of what comes his way, and a busy night in net has not hurt Montreal during its 8-0-2 run.

Colorado also played overtime Thursday and is on the road, though both teams are listed as rested for this one. That makes it more of a lineup story than a fatigue story.

Prediction and Best Bet

Montreal wins a tight game at home. Colorado has the higher ceiling, but with MacKinnon and Makar questionable and Fowler in form, I expect the Canadiens to grind this one out and keep the scoring under the number.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Canadiens 3, Avalanche 2
2. Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals

If both stars are confirmed out before puck drop, the under only gets stronger. If both play and Dobes gets the start, expect something closer to the high-scoring game the oddsmakers are pricing in.