Thursday Night Football opens Week 7 with a quarterback duel between two 2024 top draft picks. The 4-2 New England Patriots travel to Soldier Field to face the 4-2 Chicago Bears, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Chicago is a 3-point favorite and the total sits around 50.5, so oddsmakers are expecting a fairly high-scoring game.
That makes this a good night to focus on the passers. Drake Maye and Caleb Williams both carry clear stories into this game, and the numbers point to three prop bets worth a look. Below, we explain the reasoning behind each pick in plain terms so you can see exactly why the line looks off.
On the surface, Maye looks like an easy over. He has thrown for 1,463 yards through six games, and over the last three games he has averaged 292.7 yards per game compared to just 195.0 in the first three. His most recent outing against the Jets was 18-of-32 for 235 yards and three touchdowns.
The catch is where he is playing. Maye has been a very different quarterback at home than on the road. In three home games he has completed 65.9% of his passes for 817 yards, 7 touchdowns and 1 interception, averaging 272.3 yards per game. In three road games he has completed 62.1% for 646 yards with 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, averaging just 215.3 yards per game. His yards per attempt falls from 9.3 at home to 6.8 on the road. Thursday night is a road game.
The supporting cast is also thinner than it looks. Wide receiver Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve, A.J. Brown is limited with an ankle issue after catching just 27 yards on 10 targets last week, and the offensive line is banged up. Guards Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and Ben Brown (knee) did not practice on Tuesday, and tackle Morgan Moses (foot) was limited. A shaky line means fewer clean pockets and fewer deep shots.
Chicago is not a shutdown pass defense, but it has allowed only 211.8 passing yards per game overall and has been tougher at home. Maye’s season average of 243.8 is already under this number, so the under has a cushion built in at -114.
Williams missed three games with an injury, and his return in Week 6 was impressive. He completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards against Atlanta, and he sits at a league-best 72.5% completion rate among current starters. Across his three games this season he has thrown for 712 yards, an average of 237.3 per game, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.
The math here is simple. His prop for completions is set at 20.5 and attempts at 33.5, which already gets him most of the way to 245.5 yards at a modest yards-per-completion rate. The Bears also have a strong chance of passing often in a game with a total above 50, especially with running back Kyle Monangai out.
The matchup helps too. New England allows 209.0 passing yards per game, which is solid, but the Patriots secondary is also dealing with several players on the injury report, including cornerbacks Carlton Davis III (neck) and Karon Prunty (hamstring). Williams has found a rhythm with Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, who combined for 13 catches and 160 yards against Atlanta. With the line only 8.2 yards above his season-to-date average and his last outing well clear of it, the over is a fair price.
Here is where Maye’s hot streak comes in. He has thrown at least three touchdown passes in three straight games, and since the start of that run he has 11 total touchdowns against only two turnovers. Before that stretch he had just one touchdown and seven giveaways, so the early-season concerns have faded.
It is worth noting that this bet and the under on his passing yards can both be true. A quarterback can throw for 230 yards and still find the end zone twice, especially when the offense is efficient near the goal line. Maye has 11 touchdown passes on the season, and he only needs two in this game.
Chicago has also been shaky in the back end. The Bears are allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt and have surrendered 19 completions of 20 or more yards, including eight of 40-plus. With cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson reported to be dealing with injuries, there should be chances for New England to hit big plays. Chicago’s total of 50.5 also gives both teams room to score.
This card plays two sides of the same game. Maye looks like a quarterback who gets his touchdowns but may fall short on yardage away from home, while Williams looks like a passer ready to keep the volume coming after a sharp return. Here are the three bets to consider, with lines that can move before kickoff:
Shop around for the best number before you place anything, and keep an eye on the injury news on New England’s offensive line. If you are new to props, our live NFL odds page is a good place to compare prices, and our responsible gambling page is worth a read.
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