Valkyries vs Dream Prediction: WNBA Finals Game 3 Picks, Odds and Best Bet

Golden State’s defense held up in Game 1, Atlanta’s free-throw line and Angel Reese took over in Game 2, and now the WNBA Finals reset in Atlanta with everything on the line.

Quick take:

• Pick: Atlanta Dream -3.5
• Why: The Dream return to the defensive formula that won them Game 2, Golden State’s turnovers and cold shooting have been the story of the series, and Atlanta gets the home floor.
• The number to watch: 19 Golden State turnovers in Game 2, which Atlanta turned into 24 points

The Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream meet tonight at State Farm Arena with the best-of-seven series tied 1-1. Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET on USA Network, Peacock and CNBC.

Golden State finished 32-12 and took Game 1 in San Francisco, 68-64, behind 26 points from Gabby Williams. Atlanta (30-14) answered on Monday with a 79-65 win that was the first Finals victory in franchise history after an 0-10 record across three previous trips. Both teams were top-two defenses this season, and the first two games played exactly like it: low scoring, ugly shooting and a lot of free throws.

Dream Open as Home Favorites in a Series Reset

The market has moved toward Atlanta since the series shifted east. The Dream are 3.5-point favorites at most books, with moneylines around Dream -156 and Valkyries +132, and a total in the 151.5 to 152.5 range. Early numbers had Atlanta closer to 2.5, so the money has pushed the line up after the Game 2 blowout. Game 2 finished with 144 combined points, so the total is worth a second look given how both teams have defended.

Prices vary by sportsbook and can move before tip-off, so check the current board before you bet. Our live sports betting odds page is a quick way to compare numbers.

Recent Form

The form and head-to-head data below covers how both teams have played heading into Game 3. The short version: Golden State has been the steadier regular-season team, but Atlanta has looked like the better team in the games that mattered most this postseason.

Showing 9 of last 10 meetings

Why Game 2 Matters More Than Game 1

Game 1 was a coin flip that Golden State won with free throws. Williams scored 26, no other Valkyrie reached double figures, and the team shot 32.1% overall and 7 of 33 from three. Atlanta went 4 of 25 from deep and scored just eight points in the fourth quarter, and still had a shot to tie it. Allisha Gray, back from a left-hand procedure, led the Dream with 19.

Game 2 was different in a way that should travel. Atlanta went 30 of 35 from the line to Golden State’s 16 of 19, outscored the Valkyries 21-9 in the third quarter and went 12 of 12 at the stripe in that frame alone. Reese, who went scoreless in the second half of Game 1, finished with 30 points and 16 rebounds on 10-of-16 shooting. Gray added 18, Jordin Canada had 13 points and 10 assists, and Rhyne Howard set a Finals record with six steals while still struggling offensively.

Golden State committed 19 turnovers in Game 2, and Atlanta turned them into 24 points, compared to just eight points off turnovers in Game 1.

That swing is the series. When the Valkyries protect the ball, they win ugly games. When they do not, Atlanta’s defense turns mistakes into easy points, and the Valkyries have not proved they can generate enough offense in the half court to survive that. Williams went 3 of 15 in Game 2 and finished with 14 points, and Veronica Burton said afterward that Golden State was “a little too loose with the ball.”

Atlanta also gets the home floor, where the Dream went 15-7 this season. Tiffany Hayes (14 points in Game 2) and Kiah Stokes (11 rebounds and four blocks) gave the Valkyries real contributions, but the Dream’s frontcourt of Reese and company wins the rebounding and foul-line battles more often than not.

There are health notes on both sides. ESPN lists Atlanta’s Brionna Jones (leg) and Golden State’s Iliana Rupert as out for the season, while Matilde Villa is out as a coach’s decision. Gray has played both Finals games after her hand procedure, and Williams appeared hobbled late in Game 1 but played all of Game 2. Check the final injury report before tip-off.

Prediction and Best Bet

Golden State’s defense is good enough to keep this within a possession or two, but the Valkyries need Williams to shoot better than 3 of 15 and need to cut the turnovers drastically. Atlanta at home, with Reese rolling and a defense that has smothered the Valkyries for three quarters at a time, looks like the right side. The Dream have the better path to winning by four or more.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Atlanta Dream 77, Golden State Valkyries 68
2. Best Bet: Atlanta Dream -3.5

Atlanta has the home floor, the turnover edge and the free-throw advantage, and the Dream should cover the number in a low-scoring Game 3.