3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 20

Tuesday’s 11-game NHL slate is loaded, and shots on goal props are one of the cleanest ways to find value on a night like this. You do not need a player to score or to get a point. You just need him to put pucks on net, and the best shooters do that almost no matter what the scoreboard says.

Shots on goal are also easier to understand than most hockey props. They come from role, ice time, power-play usage and shooting habits, and those things stay stable from game to game. Here are three SOG bets with a clear reason behind each one.

David Pastrnak Over 3.5 Shots on Goal at Dallas

Pastrnak is the most reliable shot volume in this group. Boston’s right winger has 4 goals and 8 assists through nine games, along with 34 shots on goal. That works out to about 3.8 a night, and in his last 10 games he is averaging 3.9. He recorded four or more shots in eight of his first nine games this season, with Ottawa the only team to hold him down.

His last game fits the pattern. In Saturday’s 4-1 win over the Kings, Pastrnak put three shots on goal, scored and added an assist. Even in a night that fell just under this number, he still produced. Boston has won five straight and sits at 7-2, and Pastrnak is playing on the top power-play unit with Morgan Geekie and Fraser Minten, which keeps him shooting from his favorite spots.

The matchup is a tough one on paper. Dallas is led by Jake Oettinger, who has a 1.00 GAA and a .952 save percentage with three shutouts. But that is about finishing, not about volume. A strong goalie does not stop Pastrnak from firing, and with the Stars favored at home, Boston may spend stretches chasing the game, which usually means more shots from the top scorers. At -108 on FanDuel, the price is close to even money for a player who clears this line most nights.

Mikko Rantanen Over 1.5 Shots on Goal vs. Boston

This is the low-risk play on the board, and the reason is simple. A line of 1.5 means Rantanen needs two shots, and he is a 6-foot-4 winger who plays more than 20 minutes a night. Dallas has leaned on him, and he is averaging 20:43 of ice time, including more than four minutes on the power play.

The numbers support it. Rantanen has 15 shots on goal in his first eight games, close to 1.9 per game, and he has 8 points (2 goals, 6 assists). His recent game log of shots is 1, 1, 0, 4, 2, 3, 3, 1. He cleared two shots in four of the last eight games, and the games where he was held to one came while he was setting up teammates, not while the offense stalled. That is why this prop is built around volume rather than scoring.

The price reflects that. FanDuel has the over at -168, which is a hefty tax, so check your book for the current number before you bet. Boston’s Jeremy Swayman is strong (1.85 GAA, .934 save percentage), but a goalie’s quality does not take shot attempts away from Rantanen. If anything, it makes the shot count the safer market than goals or points.

Connor McDavid Over 2.5 Shots on Goal vs. Minnesota

McDavid is the best player in the sport right now, and it is not close. He leads the NHL with 23 points (6 goals, 17 assists) through eight games, and he is coming off a two-goal, three-assist night in a 6-2 win over Utah. Most of the attention goes to his passing, and that is exactly why his shot line can be a little soft.

His 2026-27 average is about 2.3 shots per game, so 2.5 sits right at the edge of what he normally does. The Dimers player props model puts the over at 67.2% probability, which is a 9.7% edge over the implied price. That gap suggests the market is leaning on his history as a passer more than it should. Edmonton is also a home favorite (around -130) against a Minnesota team that will make the Oilers work, and when McDavid has the puck on his stick in space, he shoots.

The risk is that he can have a night where he sets up everyone and keeps the puck off his own blade. That is why this is the third pick and not the first. Still, 2.5 is a number he has plenty of ways to reach, and the model likes it. Check your book for the current price before betting.

Lock These In

All three props come from players with big roles, major minutes and the power-play time that fuels shot volume. Pastrnak is the surest source of shots, Rantanen is the safer line, and McDavid is the value play. If you want to compare prices across apps first, the live NHL odds page is a good place to start.

• David Pastrnak OVER 3.5 SOG (-108 FanDuel)
• Mikko Rantanen OVER 1.5 SOG (-168 FanDuel)
• Connor McDavid OVER 2.5 SOG (check your book for the price)

Lines move through the day, so confirm the number before you bet, and play within your budget. If you are new to prop betting, read our responsible gambling guide first.