Thursday Night Football in Week 7 delivers a matchup that looks a lot better on paper than most prime-time games do. The New England Patriots (4-2) head to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears (4-2) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, and both teams are riding momentum from big Week 6 wins. It is also a reunion of the 2024 draft’s top two quarterbacks: Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick, against Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick, who have been linked ever since they entered the league.
If you are new to betting on football, do not worry. This breakdown walks through what the point spread and total actually mean, who has the edge, and where we land on the game.
Chicago is a 3-point home favorite at DraftKings and ESPN’s listing, with a few books hanging Bears -3.5. At FanDuel it is CHI -3 (-105) and NE +3 (-115). In plain English, the Bears need to win by more than three points to cover, while the Patriots can lose by a field goal or less (or win outright) and still cash a bet on New England. The moneyline tells the same story: Chicago is -148 and New England is +124 at DraftKings, and FanDuel has the Bears at -154 and the Patriots at +130.
The number that has really moved is the total. It opened at 47.5 and has climbed to 50.5, a sign that bettors are leaning toward points after watching both quarterbacks play well. ESPN’s Football Power Index sees Chicago winning by 2.4 points with a 60 percent win probability, which lines up closely with the market. If you want to track how these numbers shift before kickoff, our Live NFL Odds page keeps the latest lines in one place.
The short week matters here too. New England is coming off a Sunday game against the Jets and has to turn it around in four days on the road. Head coach Mike Vrabel has been pessimistic about getting injured players back in time, and the Patriots’ injury list is the biggest wrinkle in this game. Chicago has its own concerns, but they are less severe, and the Bears get to play at home on a normal routine.
New England has won three straight, and Maye is the reason. After throwing a league-high six interceptions in the first three weeks, he has thrown just one in the last three games while piling up an NFL-best 10 touchdown passes. His 119.3 passer rating is the best among qualified quarterbacks over that stretch, and his 0.38 EPA per dropback shows how efficient the offense has been. The wins came against the Bills (29-26, an upset on the road), the Raiders (45-17) and the Jets (26-19). Before that run, the Patriots lost 35-6 at Jacksonville after beating Pittsburgh 20-3 and falling 13-10 at Seattle in the opener.
The problem is the offensive line. Left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and lineman Ben Brown (knee) did not practice, and right tackle Morgan Moses (ankle) was limited. Cornerback Carlton Davis III (neck) also sat out practice, receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) was limited, and Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is on the report. Kicker Andy Borregales and defensive tackle Joshua Farmer are away from the team for personal reasons. Protecting Maye against a defense that loves to take the ball away is a real concern.
Chicago has been the NFL’s best at forcing turnovers, with 42 takeaways since the start of last season, the most in the league. That is a nightmare for an offense that has had turnover trouble with Maye earlier this year. The Bears beat Atlanta 31-23 on the road last Sunday, with Williams back from injury and sparking the offense. He is off the injury report this week. Chicago also beat the Jets 23-12 earlier in October, got blown out 31-7 at Green Bay in between, and won 27-7 over Philadelphia before losing 9-3 to Minnesota.
The Bears are not perfectly healthy either. Right guard Jonah Jackson (hip and quad) and linebacker T.J. Edwards (hamstring) missed practice at points this week, running back Kyle Monangai and linebacker Jack Sanborn are in concussion protocol, and Chicago has a decision to make at left tackle. Still, the Bears’ list is shorter than New England’s, and the stakes are clear: a win would put Chicago at 5-2 for the first time since 2020.
The Patriots lead the all-time series 11-5 across 16 meetings, a total that includes Super Bowl XX. The most recent game was in Week 10 of 2024, when New England won 19-3 and Maye and Williams met as rookies. The last Bears win was in Week 7 of 2022, a 33-14 Monday night victory at Gillette Stadium, and the Patriots took a 38-31 shootout at Chicago in 2018. History has been kind to New England, and the Patriots are 15-8 all-time on Thursdays.
That said, none of those results will matter much once the ball is kicked off. It is a different Bears team under Ben Johnson, a different Patriots team under Vrabel, and two young quarterbacks who are both playing at a high level. This is also the first of two Thursday night games for New England this season, with the second coming December 10 against the Vikings. For anyone still dreaming about playoff seeding or a long-shot title, you can see where both teams sit on the Super Bowl futures board.
This is a close game with two quality quarterbacks, but the short week and the Patriots’ injured offensive line tip it toward Chicago. The Bears play at home, they take the ball away better than anyone, and Williams has the offense moving again. New England has the better recent form, and Maye is good enough to keep it close, but protecting him on a four-day turnaround with so many linemen hurt is a tall order against this defense.
With the spread at three and the Patriots a field goal away from covering, the moneyline is the cleaner way to back Chicago: you only need the Bears to win, and the price of -148 is reasonable for a home team with this much of an edge in health and turnovers. If you want to figure out what a bet like that would pay, try our Betting Calculator before you place it, and always bet responsibly.
The Giants are handing the keys to J.J. McCarthy against the Texans in Week 7.…
The Clippers are 4.5-point favorites against the Kings in the NBA opener, and prediction markets…
New to same-game parlays? Here is a simple 3-leg SGP for Flyers at Sabres on…
Two games, three shot props. Tage Thompson leads our Flyers-Sabres shots on goal plays, with…
The WNBA Finals are tied 1-1 as Golden State visits Atlanta for Game 3. Our…
Indiana's 22-game win streak ended on a foot out of bounds, but projections still have…
This website uses cookies.