3 QB Passing Props to Back for Cowboys vs Giants on Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football rolls into MetLife Stadium as the Dallas Cowboys visit the New York Giants in a Week 1 matchup that carries a lot more intrigue than your typical division opener. Dak Prescott leads a Dallas offense that finished last season ranked second in the NFL in passing yards per game, while across the field, rookie Jaxson Dart makes his first career start under new head coach John Harbaugh after flashing real upside as a dual-threat passer down the stretch in 2025.

Both quarterbacks have paths to hit the over on their yardage props Sunday night, and Dart brings an added wrinkle that makes him worth a look in two different markets. Here’s how to attack the passing props for this one, with the latest NFL odds factored in.

Dak Prescott Should Feast Through the Air Again

Prescott’s over on 260.5 passing yards (-113/-111 at ESPN BET) lines up almost perfectly with what the numbers already suggest should happen. Dallas ranked second in the league a season ago at 266.3 passing yards per game, and Prescott has a long track record of picking apart this particular defense. He’s thrown for over 4,300 yards against the Giants across his career, including a 361-yard, two-touchdown outburst on 38-of-52 passing the last time these two teams met in September.

The matchup only helps his case here. New York’s pass defense allowed 214.2 yards per game last season, good for just 16th in the league — respectable, but not the kind of unit that’s going to consistently keep a healthy Prescott under 260 yards, especially with Dallas’s offense expected to lean on the pass early and often in a get-right spot to open the year.

Projections have Prescott right around 267 yards for this game, comfortably clearing the number. With CeeDee Lamb and a full complement of pass-catchers back in the fold, there’s no reason to expect Dallas to abandon the air attack against a defense that gave up the yardage this one did last year.

Jaxson Dart’s First Start Under Harbaugh Comes With Real Question Marks

Dart’s over on 212.5 passing yards (-113/-111) is the trickiest of the three plays here, and it’s worth being upfront about that. Projection models have him closer to 185 yards for this game, well below the listed number, and it’s easy to see why. Dart averaged just 189.3 passing yards per game as a rookie and completed only 63.7% of his throws across 12 starts in 2025. Layer in a brand-new coaching staff — his first game under Harbaugh after Harbaugh spent nearly two decades in Baltimore — and there’s legitimate uncertainty about how quickly the new offense finds its rhythm.

That said, the matchup grade here is genuinely strong. Dallas gave up plenty through the air last season, and analytics models that weigh matchup over raw box score history have this graded as one of the better spots on the board for a young passer, Dart included. It’s a bet on What Dart’s ceiling looks like against a beatable secondary, not just a repeat of his modest rookie averages. Bettors comfortable stomaching some rookie volatility in a Week 1 setting can lean into the over, but this is the pick on this slate that deserves the most caution — treat it as the value play, not the security blanket.

Dart’s Legs Give Him a Rushing Floor Worth Attacking

The companion angle here is Dart’s over on 31.5 rushing yards (-114/-110), and this is where his rookie tape gives bettors something to hang their hat on. Dart racked up 487 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns as a rookie, finishing top three among all quarterbacks in both categories despite starting just 12 games. He posted a 10.1% scramble rate, second-highest in the league at the position, and never shied away from picking up extra yardage with his legs when plays broke down.

That rushing floor matters even if the passing numbers take time to develop under a new system. A Harbaugh-coached offense figures to lean on structure and situational football early, and Dart’s willingness to tuck it and run on scrambles or built-in QB run looks gives him a real path to clearing 31.5 yards on the ground even in a game where the passing stats are still finding their footing. Think of this less as a standalone bet and more as a hedge against the passing-yards variance above — Dart doesn’t need a clean passing performance to get there with his legs.

Best Bets for Cowboys-Giants Sunday Night Football

Dallas should move the ball through the air against a Giants defense that gave up yardage in bunches a year ago, while Dart’s rookie tape and dual-threat skill set give him multiple ways to hit value in his first game under a new coaching staff. Here’s the full slate for Sunday night:

• Dak Prescott OVER 260.5 passing yards (-113/-111)
• Jaxson Dart OVER 212.5 passing yards (-113/-111)
• Jaxson Dart OVER 31.5 rushing yards (-114/-110)

Prescott’s over is the safest of the three given his history against this defense, while the Dart plays offer a higher-variance, higher-upside look at a rookie quarterback settling into a brand-new system on the NFL’s biggest weekly stage.