2023 NFL Best Bets – Week 12

After a 1-1 record in Week 11, our 2023 season-long mark in the NFL stands at 11-11-2. Our first attempt at a teaser fell a few points short in an expectedly ugly game between Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and trying to buck the trend did not pay off there. Tampa Bay and San Francisco played to a 27-14 final score, giving us a victory by the tiniest of margins for the under in that contest.

The Sunday schedule for this week’s NFL action is limited to 11 games, with five games being played across Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday surrounding the main group. Only one game among them has a spread larger than four points; the Chiefs are nine-point favorites in Las Vegas for one of four games in the mid-afternoon window.

Otherwise, ten games have point spreads of 3.5 or less in what should be a competitive Sunday slate. The highlights, on paper, look to be Houston hosting Jacksonville for AFC South supremacy and Buffalo traveling to Philadelphia for the first time since 2015. The Jags are favored by two points on the road, and the Eagles are 3.5-point favorites at the Linc.

We are looking to break free of this .500 record and have locked in another batch of best bets for Week 12.

New York Giants +3.5 (FanDuel)

As evidenced by Mark Wahlberg’s uninterested appearance on the Manning cast this week, the wounds from the Patriots-Giants Super Bowl meetings are still not fully healed. Both teams have fallen about as far from those heights as possible in the 12 to 15 years since, but the animosity between the fan bases has not subsided.

The Pats have yet to reveal who will start at quarterback for them in this game, and Bill Belichick announced he won’t share that information until Sunday. Regardless of who it is, they are unlikely to solve the issues of an offense that ranks 31st in scoring and 26th in yards per play.

New York has offensive issues of their own, but in a game where the final score could be abysmally low, we want the team at home getting points on our ticket.

Arizona Cardinals +1 (BetMGM)

Since Kyler Murray’s return, Arizona won outright as underdogs against the Falcons at home in Week 10 and followed that up with a cover on the road against Houston last week. LA also got their QB back recently and won at home against Seattle in close fashion.

The Rams have been bet down slightly from two-point favorites, and we want to lock this play in before it moves any closer to a pick ‘em. Kyler Murray has rushed for 84 yards and a touchdown in two appearances to offset some so-so passing numbers, and teams like Philadelphia and Indianapolis have had success against the Rams when deploying a running quarterback.

We expect Murray to help his team avenge an earlier loss to LA and guide them to a 3-0 ATS start to his season.

Chicago Bears +3.5 (Unibet)

The Bears looked competitive in a road loss to Detroit last week, setting a season-high rushing total with 183 yards on 46 attempts. Justin Fields returned to carry the ball 18 times for 104 yards while posting a 73.9 QBR and averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt. He reconnected well with DJ Moore, who caught seven of Fields’ 16 completions for 96 yards and a touchdown and avoided turnovers while helping his team cover the spread against the Lions.

Minnesota defended Denver well last week and forced them to kick five field goals before allowing a back-breaking touchdown with a minute to go in their loss to the Broncos. They turned the ball over three times, two of which came from Josh Dobbs, and could struggle to run against a Chicago defense that ranks first in the NFL in opponent yards per carry.

We like Chicago plus the points in this NFC North brawl on Monday night.