Yankees vs. Cubs Prediction: New York Looks to Bounce Back at Wrigley Field on August 1

Max Fried takes the ball at Wrigley Field with a chance to keep the Yankees from dropping consecutive series against a Cubs team that just won’t go away.

Quick take:

• Pick: Yankees moneyline
• Why: Max Fried’s 3.23 ERA against a Cubs lineup that’s cooled off, versus a Cubs starter in David Peterson who’s been hit hard all year
• The number to watch: Peterson’s 5.80 ERA and 6-7 record against a Yankees offense that’s still scoring in bunches

New York dropped the series opener at Wrigley on Friday, and now sits at 61-48 heading into Saturday night, five games back in the AL East and fading in the World Series odds. Chicago, at 62-47, has been one of the more resilient teams in the National League, holding onto a wild card spot despite a rotation that’s been ravaged by injuries all summer. This is the middle game of a three-game interleague set that’s drawn a sellout crowd and a jump in ticket prices, and neither club can really afford to give this one away.

Why the Market Still Likes New York

Books have the Yankees favored at roughly -120 on the moneyline, with Chicago getting a plus number at home. The run line has New York at -1.5 (+150ish) and the Cubs at +1.5, while the total sits at 6.5. That’s a notably tighter number than you’d expect for a team that just lost the opener, and it comes down to one thing: the pitching matchup. Fried starts for New York looking for his fifth win, while Peterson takes the ball for Chicago carrying an ERA nearly two and a half runs higher. The market isn’t punishing New York much for Friday’s loss, and the pitching gap is the reason why. Bettors weighing a DraftKings promo code for this one should note the run line offers better value than the plain moneyline given how thin Chicago’s bullpen is.

Recent Form

Both clubs have been streaky over the last two weeks, but the underlying numbers tell slightly different stories heading into Saturday.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Judge, Bellinger and a Cubs Lineup Missing Some Punch

Aaron Judge is still doing Aaron Judge things — a .908 OPS, 17 home runs and a .375 on-base percentage that keeps New York’s lineup dangerous even when the supporting cast goes quiet. Cody Bellinger has been up and down, but he’s got 11 homers and 50 RBI on the year, with a track record of feasting once he sees a pitcher a second time in a series. On the other side, Chicago’s lineup runs through Pete Crow-Armstrong, who’s having a breakout year in center — a .285 average, 24 homers and 63 RBI — but Kyle Tucker has cooled off significantly, batting just .234 with a .707 OPS and hitting only .196 over his last 30 games. That’s a real swing in outcomes for a Cubs offense that leaned on him heavily in the first half.

New York’s pitching staff has actually been the better unit by park-adjusted numbers all year — a 3.40 team ERA compared to Chicago’s 4.18 — and that gap shows up again Saturday with Fried on the mound.

David Peterson is 1-4 in starts this season when the Cubs have been underdogs on the moneyline.

That trend matters here. Chicago is the home underdog again Saturday, and Peterson simply hasn’t given his team a chance in those spots. He’s been prone to long innings and traffic on the bases — a 5.80 ERA isn’t a fluke over a full season’s workload — and a Yankees lineup with Judge, Bellinger and a deep supporting cast is built to make a mediocre start expensive. Fried, meanwhile, has been steady all year and has helped his own cause; his teams are 7-4 against the spread in his starts this season.

Chicago’s bullpen has also taken a beating from injuries, with several relievers currently on the IL. That thins out Craig Counsell’s options if this game turns into a bullpen battle in the sixth or seventh inning, which tilts a close game further toward New York.

Prediction and Best Bet

Fried gives the Yankees length and swing-and-miss stuff against a Cubs lineup that’s leaning too hard on Crow-Armstrong right now, while Peterson’s history in underdog spots doesn’t inspire confidence for Chicago. Expect New York to bounce back after Friday’s loss and control this one from the middle innings on.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Yankees 6, Cubs 3
2. Best Bet: Yankees on the moneyline

Fried’s edge on the mound is simply too large to fade, and betting the runline here also has value given how thin Chicago’s bullpen is at the moment.