Missouri vs Kansas Preview: Odds, Prediction, Best Bet for the Border War Rematch

The Border War is back for round two, and this time it comes with primetime lights. No. 23 Missouri travels to Lawrence to face Kansas on Friday night at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, with kickoff set for 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX. Both teams enter unbeaten at 1-0, both have brand new starting quarterbacks trying to find their footing, and both know exactly what happened the last time these two shared a field. This is one of the most anticipated non-conference games of the young season, and it carries real weight for a rivalry that spent over a decade dormant before finally waking back up.

Where the Odds Stand for the Border War Rematch

Missouri opened as a 5.5-point favorite and the number has held firm at most books, with the Tigers sitting at -5.5 (-115) and Kansas getting +5.5 (-105) on the spread. The total is set at 50.5, with the over and under both priced at -110. On the moneyline, Missouri is around -224 to -230 while Kansas sits in the +180 to +188 range, reflecting a market that clearly favors the Tigers but isn’t treating this as a blowout. Anyone tracking live NCAAF odds throughout the week has watched this number stay remarkably stable compared to other Week 2 games.

Computer models are largely in line with the betting market. Dimers projects Missouri to win roughly 65% of the time and forecasts a 29-24 final. Other model-driven outlets have Missouri’s win probability closer to 70%, with a slightly tighter score. Still, there’s a contrarian pocket of support for Kansas and the under, built around the uncertainty that comes with two first-year starting quarterbacks playing under the lights in a hostile, emotionally charged rivalry environment.

New Quarterbacks, Similar Storylines on Both Sidelines

Missouri’s offense now runs through Austin Simmons, an Ole Miss transfer who was installed as QB1 back in March to give him extra time to build chemistry with a receiving corps that saw significant turnover. The early returns were emphatic. Simmons went 17-of-19 for 252 yards and four touchdowns in a Week 1 rout of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a game Missouri won 54-14 while piling up 562 total yards. He connected with Shaun Terry II on a 25-yard score on the opening drive and never let up from there. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz clearly likes what he has in Simmons, and the numbers back that confidence up.

Kansas is breaking in its own new starter in redshirt sophomore Isaiah Marshall, who beat out Cole Ballard for the job after an extended camp battle and now takes over for Jalon Daniels, who wrapped up his Kansas career and signed as an undrafted free agent with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Marshall’s debut went well: 246 yards and two touchdowns on 14-of-19 passing in a 51-6 win over Long Island University, though Kansas needed to shake off a slow start before pulling away. Marshall brings a dual-threat element that echoes what Daniels provided, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, back at Kansas after stints away, will be looking to get him comfortable in a much tougher environment than Week 1 provided.

Kansas will also be without defender Daveon Crouch for this one, a notable absence against a Missouri offense that just put up 562 yards of total offense in its opener.

The Border War History Behind the Rivalry

This is the oldest Division I rivalry west of the Mississippi River, dating back to 1891, and it’s one that went dark for 13 years after Missouri departed the Big 12 for the SEC following the 2011 season. The rivalry was revived in 2025, with games now scheduled for 2025, 2026, 2031, and 2032. Missouri claims an all-time series lead of 58-54-9, though Kansas disputes that number and claims a 57-55-9 edge, with the discrepancy tracing back to a disputed 1960 result.

Last year’s renewal in Columbia was about as dramatic as a comeback game gets. Kansas jumped out to a 21-6 lead after the first quarter, but Missouri stormed back behind Beau Pribula’s 334 yards and three touchdowns through the air, plus a Jamal Roberts touchdown run in the final minutes that sealed a 42-31 Tigers win in front of a sold-out Faurot Field crowd. That result extended Missouri’s active winning streak in the series and gave the Tigers plenty of momentum heading into this rematch, but Kansas will be plenty motivated to get a measure of revenge on its own home field this time around.

Prediction and Best Bet

Missouri’s offensive line and skill talent look like the more proven, more explosive unit right now, and Simmons looked completely in sync with his weapons in Week 1. Kansas has a talented dual-threat quarterback of its own in Marshall, but asking a first-time starter to go on the road (relatively speaking, in a de facto road environment against a ranked SEC opponent) in a primetime rivalry setting is a lot to overcome, especially missing a key piece on defense. Expect a game that’s competitive for stretches, similar to last year’s back-and-forth affair, before Missouri’s depth and quarterback experience edge take over in the fourth quarter.

• Prediction: Missouri 31, Kansas 24
• Best Bet: Missouri -5.5

Missouri’s ability to move the ball efficiently through the air, paired with a Kansas defense already down a key contributor, gives the Tigers enough of an edge to cover in what should be another entertaining chapter of the Border War.